I am Qi He. Staring at the market, I came across Trump bragging about how strong the U.S. economy is. The MACD white line on ETH's hourly chart has quietly settled below the 0 axis... Many friends are asking: Qi He, wasn't it said that the trend is upward? So can we push to 3100 tonight? Or is this upward trend a "smoke screen," with a pullback to 2930 or even 2775 waiting for us?
Don't rush, sit down, and let me explain it to you in detail.
News:
Trump is loudly promoting on Truth Social that "tariffs bring good data" and "there is no inflation," and the GDP figure for the third quarter is indeed impressive. This news is like a short-term stimulant, which theoretically makes the market feel that "the economy is good, and risk assets can be played with," providing a bit of support for the sentiment in the crypto space. However, please note! This has a very indirect impact on ETH; it cannot change the true health status of ETH's technical framework. News is the "outer layer," while technology is the "skeleton," we need to see if the skeleton is indeed crooked.
Technical analysis:
The one-hour chart is indeed showing an 'upward trend', but please keep your eyes glued to that MACD. The white line has already dropped below the 0 axis! What does this signal mean? In simple terms: the short-term upward momentum has shown signs of 'fatigue'. Just like running, the speed is still moving forward, but the heart rate monitor has already sounded an alarm. At the same time, the words 'insufficient volume' on the chart are the most ruthless stab; not many people are really investing real money to push higher!
What should players do? Qihe gives you two 'survival strategies':
If you have a heavy position, especially if you bought high: Don’t lay flat! Clearly set your stop-loss just below 2930. This is not giving up; this is leaving yourself capital for the next entry. Protecting capital is always more important than a single profit or loss.
If you are empty and want to enter: Please resist the urge to 'chase the rise'! Jumping in now is like catching flying knives. A true hunter knows how to wait. Focus on two positions: One is if the pullback to 2930 stabilizes and rebounds, consider a light position for a long; the other is if it unexpectedly breaks through 3100 strongly and holds, wait for a pullback confirmation before following in. Remember, 'right-side confirmation' is always safer than 'left-side guessing'.
Qihe's personal opinion:
Is it difficult to directly break through 3100 tonight? Yes! The upper 3100 is a clear strong pressure zone. Under the current dual drag of 'volume-price divergence' and 'MACD underwater', the probability of a successful breakthrough in one go is low. More likely, when approaching this position, it will encounter a short-seller counterattack.
2930 is the key! Around 2930 is the 'lifeline' of the current upward trend and also the key position on the chart. My judgment is that the market is likely to first pull back to test the support strength near 2930. If it can hold here, the market can still fluctuate at a high level, gathering strength to fight again; if it breaks down here, the next important defensive position will be 2775. As for whether it will go directly to 2775 tonight? Unless there is an unexpected major negative news, it’s a bit difficult to reach in one go; more likely is a volatile decline.
Follow Qihe, answers and directions, I will give you clearer guidance. Trading coins is not lonely; we will see the way forward together. If you are unclear about specific entry points, you can follow Qihe for 24-hour real-time reminders for friends who have followed me.
