$36 million in whale purchases of Cardano is facing a reversal setup — what’s the next step?
The price of Cardano is still under pressure due to higher time frames, having dropped about 12% compared to the previous month. But beneath the weak surface, a different story is unfolding. Momentum is stabilizing, selling pressure is easing, and one of the largest Cardano whale groups has started to add aggressively.
This shift is not random. It closely aligns with bullish divergence, a structure that has preceded sharp upward movements in ADA.
The upward divergence in the RSI indicator suggests a potential trend reversal.
The first piece of the setup appears in the daily chart.
Between November 21 and December 18, Cardano's price recorded lower lows, while the RSI recorded higher lows. The RSI measures momentum. When the price weakens, but the RSI improves, it shows that sellers are losing strength despite the continued price decline. This is classic bullish divergence in the recurring signal indicator, often associated with trend reversals rather than short-term bounces.
A similar structure appeared earlier in this cycle between late November and early December. After this divergence persisted, Cardano rose by around 30% over eight.
RSI does not work in isolation. What matters now is whether the behavior on the chain confirms that sellers are indeed retreating.
Whales are entering with reduced coin activity.
Chain data shows strong confirmation.
Wallets holding between $100 million to $1 billion, the second largest whale group in Cardano, have increased their holdings since December 20. Their balances rose from $3.74 billion to $3.84 billion, adding nearly $100 million. At current prices, this equates to about $36 million added during a period of weak price movement.
This purchase directly aligns with changes in the age category scale of consumed coins. This scale tracks the number of coins being moved, and often reflects selling activity. On December 16, consumed coins peaked, and the whales were distributing supplies. As consumed coins fell, whale accumulation resumed.
The pattern is consistent.
When coin activity rises (and possibly selling pressure), whales retreat. When selling activity fades, whales add.
This behavior indicates that large harvesters are reacting to reduced selling pressure, not chasing price strength. This reinforces the positive bullish divergence signal for the positive indicator, showing that weak selling pressure is being supported by large whales.
Key price levels for Cardano that determine the outcome.
Even with improved momentum and whale accumulation, price confirmation remains important.
For Cardano to overcome the reversal attempt, it must reclaim key resistance levels. The first meaningful strength signal appears above $0.44, but real confirmation approaches $0.47. A clean breakout above this area would closely align with the previous rise after the divergence and open the door towards $0.50, a key level.
If momentum continues and whale accumulation persists, a target of $0.50 to $0.55 becomes likely under supportive market conditions.
Downside risks remain evident. If ADA loses $0.34, the reversal hypothesis weakens sharply. Any breakout below this level would indicate a return of selling pressure. History suggests that whales may start selling at that time.
