Shanghai Composite Index has risen for five consecutive days, is it a slow bull?

The index has risen for five consecutive days, showing signs of a slow bull market, but over 3,800 stocks in both markets are declining, which does not resemble a slow bull at all, considering the rebound in the last five days. In fact, there were four days where individual stocks rose more than they fell; for instance, last Friday, over 4,400 stocks were rising, but the overall sentiment is quite poor. When the market rises, it feels weak, broad but lacking strength, and the key hotspots rotate too quickly, with many stocks just treading water. Data statistics show that since the five consecutive rises, the number of rising stocks is less than 2,200, clearly indicating that while the index has risen for five days, most individual stocks have fallen more than they have risen. No wonder everyone feels bad about the market.

From the performance of individual stocks, the index and individual stock performances are diverging. A rebound without a profit-making effect cannot stimulate market sentiment. Such performance renders discussions about the year-end market meaningless. If most people haven't made money, how can they actively enter the market? Moreover, the main funds continue to flee, and large capital has no confidence in the market, focusing on shrinking their positions, while small retail investors are reluctant to enter. Such an index rebound is hard to sustain. Of course, this is only based on short-term market conditions and does not affect our belief in a long-term bull market. The strength of the upward movement in the short-term market depends on the depth of the downward pull; only by creating a pit can we attract bottom-fishing funds to enter.

Tuesday's market was chaotic! High-position themes collectively became volatile today. Commercial aerospace was affected by the news of the failure of the Long March 12A rocket recovery (this is the second time in a short period), with Shanghai Hanjun and Shaanxi Huada directly hitting the limit down, which significantly impacted market sentiment. The core stocks in the Fujian sector also experienced huge fluctuations. Someone online shouted, "Commercial aerospace is over!" I think this conclusion is too hasty! New technology going from zero to one, how can there be no stumbles? Failure is the mother of success, and the key is to look at the subsequent developments. However, the short-term emotional impact is indeed large. Discussing risks and opportunities without considering timing is meaningless.

Low-position themes didn't fare much better. The Hainan sector, which was performing well yesterday, opened high at +5%, but closed with just 0.7% left, a typical case of "opening high and closing low". Among the five stocks hitting the limit up, four were on a single board, giving no opportunity for external funds to participate. This kind of play clearly shows a "catch-up" attribute, making it hard to carry the main theme. Those who chased in today got a sure “flying knife.” However, it’s worth noting that when trading Hainan, one cannot focus solely on the region; it essentially extends from the consumption sector and serves as a “warm-up” for potential consumption stimulus policies before the Spring Festival. Speaking of big consumption, overall it has been sluggish today, with Dongbai Group being the only standout, while Yonghui Supermarket, as the mid-range player, is not strong, which hampers the sector's strength.

Who is rising? Cyclical stocks and technology stocks are relatively active!

Today, the stocks that performed well included lithium mining and other cyclical stocks, with the rising price of lithium carbonate futures being the main reason. Precious metals (gold and silver) and energy metals also performed well, with international gold prices soaring above 4,500 USD/ounce, and silver breaking through 70 USD, both hitting historical highs! This increase, 70% for gold and 140% for silver this year, is a madness not seen in decades. The logic? The credibility of the US dollar is being questioned, geopolitical conflicts continue, and central banks worldwide are buying, with all three factors working together. Some analysts have even started looking ahead to 2026; can you believe it?

In the technology sector, the liquid cooling concept is making a comeback, with seven stocks hitting the limit up, and the mid-range player Yingweike is also reaching new highs, while the elastic stock Yidong Electronics has a significant rise. CPO's "Yizhongtian" is also holding steady. Semiconductor equipment-related stocks like Shenghui Integration and Yaxiang Integration have also hit the limit up for two consecutive days. Recently, this theme has been rotating; last Wednesday was liquid cooling, last Thursday was rewarding the economy, last Friday was nuclear power, yesterday was Hainan, and today it’s back to liquid cooling... This rhythm is akin to "quantitative funds flipping cards"; who gets favored each day is all about luck! In such a market, it’s easy to "slap yourself in the face" by making random moves, so it’s better to be patient and stick to your preferred direction.

Significant good news! The state is investing real money into hard technology.

After the market closed, a big piece of news broke: the national venture capital guidance fund's three regional sub-funds (Yangtze River Delta, Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei) have been officially established, with a total investment exceeding 120 billion! This is not a small amount; it is expected to leverage nearly one trillion in social capital. This is a real "peace of mind" for early to mid-stage hard technology companies!

Yangtze River Delta: Focus on semiconductors (like SMIC's industrial chain), biomedicine, and new energy.

Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau: Emphasize artificial intelligence (smart driving like Desay SV) and high-end manufacturing (like Inovance Technology), and new materials.

Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei: Target aerospace and integrated circuits (like Northern Huachuang and other equipment manufacturers).

This layout is a precise positioning by the national level for future core technology tracks, providing long-term benefits!

Other highlights: Autonomous driving: Beijing has issued the first batch of L3-level high-speed automatic driving licenses, which is of great significance and serves as an "industry starter pistol"! Although the sector adjusted today, the position is relatively low, and if there are continued divergences at high positions tomorrow, it is possible that funds may switch from high to low.

SMIC: Confirmed a price increase of about 10% for some production capacities, which meets expectations. With the explosion in AI demand, after TSMC's surge, it is reasonable for SMIC to rise as well, boosting confidence in the industrial chain.

To summarize: The index has risen for five consecutive days, gaining face; however, individual stocks are generally down, making the underlying situation a bit hollow. The market is in a phase of rapid rotation and confusion, with increasing divergences in high-position themes and doubts about the sustainability of low-position catch-up. Cyclical (lithium, precious metals) and technology (liquid cooling, semiconductor equipment) sectors are relatively active. Significant policies favor the long-term development of hard technology. In such a "quantitative flipping cards" market, chasing high and killing low carries great risks, maintaining patience and stability may be more prudent than frequent operations. After all, sometimes patience is more precious than gold (although gold is indeed very expensive now!). Tomorrow, continue to observe the flow of funds, especially the high-low switch and the combination of volume.