Short-term fluctuations need not be panicked, the lower moving averages provide strong support.

The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to fluctuate around 3936 points in the short term, with the current index operating within a central range, and the overall structure has not changed. Whether it can break through 3936 points depends on the strength of the pullback; the key premise is to maintain support from the lower moving averages: if the moving averages hold after the fluctuations, the index still has a chance to challenge the resistance at the neck line of 3936 points; once it falls below the moving averages, the index is likely to drop to the central lower track at 3815 points.

In terms of sectors, the commercial aerospace sector is likely to face a pullback in the short term, and a KDJ top divergence signal has appeared on the daily chart, so during the pullback stage, attention should be paid to the support strength of the 20-day moving average and the gap position. The current market theme is clear, with large consumer retail and technology chip semiconductors as the core rotation direction, while other sectors are mostly of a short-term rotation nature, making it difficult to sustain performance. As the commercial aerospace sector enters adjustment, the previously pulled back large consumer retail sector is expected to welcome a flow of funds.