BlockBeats news, on December 23, according to Cointelegraph, VanEck analysts stated that the Bitcoin network's hash rate declined by 4% in the month ending December 15. This could create a favorable condition for Bitcoin prices in the coming months, as miner capitulation has historically been viewed as a bullish contrarian indicator.
VanEck Chief of Crypto Research Matt Sigel and Senior Investment Analyst Patrick Bush pointed out in a report released on Monday: "When the hash rate declines for an extended period, the probability of positive returns in the future increases, and the gains are often larger." They also stated that since 2014, when the hash rate of the Bitcoin network has declined in the previous 30 days, the probability of positive returns over the next 90 days has reached 65%; while in cases of rising hash rates, this ratio is only 54%. This pattern holds true over longer time frames as well: when the hash rate growth over the previous 90 days was negative, the probability of Bitcoin price increases over the following 180 days reached 77%, with an average increase of about 72%; whereas in the case of hash rate growth during the same period, the probability of positive returns over 180 days was only 61%.
