Between optimism and caution: Will the "Santa Rally" visit Bitcoin at the end of 2025?
As the end of 2025 approaches, cryptocurrency investors are looking forward to the historic "Santa Rally," a wave of rising prices that often adorns the markets in the last days of December. With Bitcoin's price fluctuating around the $90,000 levels, experts have turned to the strongest AI models (ChatGPT, Grok, Gemini) to estimate the probabilities of this anticipated rise.
1. 2025 Roadmap: Year of Major Volatility
AI models unanimously agreed that 2025 was a "rollercoaster ride" for Bitcoin. After the currency recorded record levels above $126,000 in October, it entered a correction and digestion phase, stabilizing in a sideways range by the end of the year. This retreat left the market questioning: Has the momentum ended, or is there one last push before the beginning of 2026?
2. Model outlook: varying probabilities
The analytical outlook of the three models varied based on current market data:
A. Gemini Model (Google): betting on the rebound
Gemini was the most optimistic, setting a 55% probability for the rally.
* Logic: The model sees that negative sentiment has reached a "saturation" level, paving the way for a technical rebound.
* Target: Gemini expects to surpass the $95,000 level, supported by continued ETF inflows and improved macroeconomic conditions.
B. ChatGPT Model (OpenAI): Balance of power
ChatGPT has taken a neutral stance with a probability of 45%.
* Logic: The model describes price movement by the principle of "two steps forward and one step back."
* Main driver: A liquidity shortage during the holidays could lead to a sudden "price explosion" due to short position liquidations, but it warned that macro pressures remain a barrier to achieving new record numbers.
C. Grok Model (Elon Musk): Cautious realistic outlook
Grok was the least enthusiastic with a probability ranging from 30% to 40%.
* Logic: The model sees the market in a state of "boring stability" and not "ready to take off."
* Obstacles: Grok pointed to a decline in ETF momentum in the last quarter, considering that the price will remain in a narrow range unless a significant political or economic catalyst appears.
3. Pivotal factors in the last days
The report summarized the factors that will determine Bitcoin's fate in the coming two weeks:
| Bullish driving factors | Bearish pressure factors |
|---|---|
| Low liquidity: increases the impact of buy orders. | Technical resistance: strong price barriers at 95k and 100k. |
| ETF funds: Continued institutional interest. | Tax selling: Investors abandoning their assets to adjust their tax positions. |
| Historical optimism: Market tendency to rise at the end of the year. | Defensive hedging: Increase in contracts betting on a decline. |
Conclusion: Will Santa appear in the crypto market?
With an average probability of around 43%, AI predictions indicate that the "Santa Rally" of 2025 is not as guaranteed as traders hope. The general trend leans towards Bitcoin possibly experiencing a "quiet rise" that improves the annual closing price, rather than a rocket launch towards crazy levels.
Investors remain on alert, as everyone realizes that Bitcoin, by its nature, always has the potential to defy both programmed and human expectations.
