✅ What You’re Right About

Liquidity sweep + BOS + CHoCH → classic smart-money accumulation signature

Bounce ≠ confirmation. Most retail mistakes happen at equilibrium

3,050 area is not an entry zone — it’s where traps form

Bias stays bullish only above 2,900, which you clearly defined (very important)

This alone puts your thinking above 80% of traders.

⚠️ The Real Risk Right Now

Retail sees:

“ETH bounced, bull run is back”

Smart money sees:

“Let’s see who buys late so we can distribute higher”

Equilibrium is where:

Late longs get trapped

Early longs take partials

Market decides continuation vs distribution

So yes — buying just because of a bounce = late behavior.

🧠 Smart Adjustment (Optional Refinement)

If you want to be even cleaner:

Only long 2,980–3,020 after bullish confirmation (LTF CHoCH)

If price nukes back under 2,900, bias flips neutral → bearish

Premium shorts only with rejection + volume divergence (no blind sells)

Patience > prediction.

Bottom Line

I agree with your core statement:

Smart money already bought fear. Now they’re watching who buys excitement.

This is a sniper’s market, not a gambler’s one.