12.22 WTI Crude Oil Evening Review

Personally, I feel that today's crude oil is showing a low-level fluctuation rebound, but the upward momentum is obviously insufficient. The overall bearish pattern has not been broken, so intraday operations should still focus on short-term rebounds to short, and positions and stop-losses must be closely monitored.

As of 20:10, WTI crude oil is reported at $57.05 per barrel, up slightly by 0.90%; SC crude oil main contract closed at 432.7 yuan, an increase of 2.46%, with intraday high and low points reaching 438.3 and 428.5 respectively. From the driving factors, I think today's rebound is more supported by short-term geopolitical news— the U.S. intercepting Venezuelan oil tankers, along with the tense situation between the Middle East, the U.S., and Venezuela, adding some pulse-like premium to oil prices. However, this support is difficult to sustain; the core bearish factor that truly dominates the market is still the oversupply: global crude oil inventories have been accumulating, expectations of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine are suppressing risk premiums, and the demand side shows no bright performance, while the technical indicators are in a bearish arrangement, with the mid-term trend still leaning bearish.

On the technical front, at the daily level, the formation of the moving averages in a bearish arrangement is very clear. Although the green bars of MACD below the zero axis are converging, there is still no golden cross signal, and the RSI value is approximately between 40-45, indicating that the rebound momentum is very weak, and the downward trend has not been reversed.

The first resistance is at 57.6, with strong resistance in the range of 58.0-59.0; support should be watched at 55.5-55.9, and if broken, look down to 54.5-54.8. In terms of rhythm, the Asian session has already seen a wave of rebound; I estimate that the European session will most likely maintain a range-bound fluctuation, and during the U.S. session, we need to be cautious of a pullback after a rise.

Short near crude oil 57.6-58.0, with a stop-loss above 58.3, and initially target 55.9-55.5. If it can break support, continue to look for 54.8.

In the 55.5-55.9 range, if it stabilizes, go long, with a stop-loss set at 55.2, targeting 57.0-57.5 for profit-taking.

- Risk control is the bottom line: a single position must not exceed 3%, stop-loss must be strictly enforced, and once a lack of rebound strength is detected, do not hesitate, quickly take profits and exit, do not linger in the battle #美联储回购协议计划 $BTC $ETH