#USNonFarmPayrollReport 🚨 HUGE BTC OPTIONS EXPIRY NEXT WEEK 🚨
Pandas, when large expiries like this happen, you can expect BTC to start moving "weird" on purpose. The next one hits on December 26th, as over $23.7 billion worth of options will expire, the largest ever for July 2025. Approximately 268,000 contracts will expire simultaneously, which by itself is significant enough to impact price action, regardless of news coverage.
What most people don't realize is that most of the open interest is concentrated on the call side rather than the put side. As far as ratios of open interest goes, the PUT/CALL ratio is very low — indicating that traders continue to maintain a bullish view on the market.
But these aren’t just "sitting there". Large players use hedging techniques with spot and futures to hedge their positions – which creates an actual buying/selling pressure in the market.
Here's what happens leading into large options expiries:
• erratic price action (sharp price spikes)
• false breakouts
• chaotic range prices that trap both longs & shorts
The one number that matters more than anything else is 96,000. That number represents the maximum pain level for option holders to lose more at expiration. Although there’s no guarantee that BTC will hit 96K at expiration, given the history of previous expiries of over $23 billion, prices tend to react at expiration near these strike prices.
The typical behavior leading up to the expiration includes the following:
• erratic sideway movements
• "stop hunts" at both ends
• breakouts that do not carry through until after expiration
After expiration:
• the hedging pressure dissipates
• the liquidity has cleared and
• BTC starts to move again.
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