🎯 SHORT SETUP – $RIVER 🎯
Entry Zone: 5.6 - 5.89
Stop Loss: 6.5
Take Profit Targets:
∙ TP1: 4.90
∙ TP2: 4.30
∙ TP3: 3.89
🔥 Bearish Justification
Price experienced a massive parabolic spike from 3.890 to 8.536 followed by violent rejection, crashing over 50% down to 1.616 before recovering to current 5.612. This erratic price action created a classic double top structure with extreme volatility, and the current bounce is showing exhaustion at the MA(7) resistance around 4.707 with price struggling to push higher. The failed attempt to reclaim previous highs signals distribution phase as early buyers continue taking profits.
Volume analysis reveals concerning weakness with 56.43% sellers dominating versus 43.57% buyers, indicating sustained distribution pressure. The MA(7) at 4.707 sits below current price while MA(25) at 3.941 provides distant support, but critically the MA(99) at 4.736 is acting as strong overhead resistance. Volume has drastically declined from the initial spike, with MA(5) at 2.655B showing exhaustion compared to earlier participation, confirming buyers are losing conviction.
This setup offers high probability because the 5.55-5.70 zone represents a local resistance cluster where previous selling occurred, creating a supply zone. The 7-day performance shows 10.32% decline, demonstrating weakness in the intermediate trend despite today’s 23.34% bounce. Key support zones sit at 4.90 where consolidation formed, then 4.30 near the MA(25), with final liquidity pools at the 24-hour low of 3.890. The risk-reward is exceptional as a rejection from current levels would trigger cascading stop losses from recent bounce traders, accelerating downside momentum toward unfilled gaps and trapped buyers below.
