Brothers, I am Mig.
This morning, I opened my eyes to see that after BTC surged to 89000, it fell back to around the 88000 horizontal price level.
After refreshing the news, my heart sank—suddenly the “new hawk king” with voting rights at the Federal Reserve next year stated: “Inflation is still a major concern, interest rates should be frozen until spring!”
This news seems distant, but it is actually very sharp. Many fans urgently ask me: “Mig, is this a false rise or a real drop? Should I run or should I go for it?” Don’t panic, let’s sit down, I’ll break down this 4-hour chart for you, combined with the news, and explain it clearly.
News front: This is not ordinary news, this is a 'time bomb'.
Many people only read the headlines in the news and think that the 'Federal Reserve' and 'BTC' are far apart. Wrong! The global liquidity control is the Federal Reserve.
This official, who will have voting rights next year, clearly opposes recent interest rate cuts and emphasizes that inflation is the priority. What does this mean? It means the market's expectation for 'liquidity easing' has been doused with cold water. The dollar may be stronger, and hot money may be more cautious, which poses invisible pressure on risk assets priced in dollars like BTC.
This is not an immediate instruction for a crash, but it is a signal to 'cool down' market sentiment. If more officials follow up, the market's optimistic sentiment will be repeatedly tested.
Technical chart: Both bulls and bears are in a tug-of-war at a 'critical position'.
Upper pressure zone: 90000 (psychological barrier), 91000 (rebound pressure), 92000 (strong pressure). Without matching volume, the possibility of breaking through remains low.
Current position: 88375, above the key level of 87600.
Lower defense line: 86000-85000 (target support zone), 84000-83000 (bottom support).
Core indicator: The MACD yellow and white lines have crossed above the 0 axis, which is a sign of short-term bullish momentum, indicating that funds are attempting to push higher. The volume bar has just started to break through, but its sustainability is questionable.
Mig's personal view: Although MACD shows upward momentum, the news is bearish, and BTC has been consolidating recently. I think it's very difficult to push directly to 91000. A more likely scenario is: continue to grind between 88000-90000 during the day, and if the volume doesn't keep up at night, it may test support at 86500-85500.
What should retail investors do?
Brothers with heavy positions: If your cost is low, consider reducing your position slightly around 90000 to lock in profits.
For those wanting to enter with small positions: Don't chase the highs, wait for a pullback to around 86500-86000 to buy in batches, with a stop-loss set below 85000.
Watching from the sidelines: Hold steady, it's better to miss out than to make a mistake when the direction isn't clear.
The road of the circle is long, don't expect to get rich overnight. But if you follow the right rhythm and understand the logic, you can live longer and more steadily than most.
If you don't know the specific entry timing and exit points, fans who are holding positions can follow Mig, who will announce daily coins and entry points as well as exit timing in the chat room!!
