BlockBeats message, December 21, IOSG founding partner Jocy posted on social media that '2025 will be the darkest year for the crypto market, and it is also the dawn of the institutional era. This is a fundamental shift in market structure, while most people are still viewing the new era with the logic of the old cycle. Looking back at the 2025 crypto market, we see a paradigm shift from retail speculation to institutional allocation, with core data showing institutional holdings at 24%, retail investors exiting at 66%, and the crypto market's turnover completed. Although BTC fell by 5.4% in 2025, it reached a historical high of $126,080 during that period. Market dominance has shifted from retail to institutions. Institutions continue to accumulate at 'high levels' because they are not focusing on price, but on the cycle. Retail investors are selling, while institutions are buying. It is not a 'bull market peak' but a 'period of institutional accumulation.'
There will be mid-term elections in November 2026. Historical patterns indicate that 'election year policies take precedence', so the investment logic should be: the first half of 2026 is a policy honeymoon period and institutional allocation, optimistic about the market; the second half of 2026 has political uncertainty and increased volatility. However, there are still risks such as Federal Reserve policy, a strong dollar, potential delays in the market structure bill, continued selling by LTH, and uncertainties about the mid-term election results. But the other side of risk is opportunity; when everyone is bearish, it is often the best time to position.
Short-term (3-6 months): Range fluctuations between $87,000-$95,000, institutions continue to build positions
Mid-term (First half of 2026): Policy and institutional dual drive, target $120,000-$150,000
Long-term (Second half of 2026): Increased volatility, watch election results and policy continuity
This is not a cyclical peak, but the starting point of a new cycle. 2025 marks the acceleration of the institutionalization process in the crypto market. Although BTC's annual return is negative, ETF investors show strong HODL resilience. On the surface, 2025 appears to be the worst year for crypto, but in reality, it has: the largest scale of supply turnover, the strongest willingness for institutional allocation, the clearest policy support, and the most comprehensive infrastructure improvement. Although prices fell by 5%, ETF inflow reached $25 billion, optimistic about the market in the first half of 2026. Key highlights for 2026 include: legislative progress on the market structure bill, the possibility of strategic Bitcoin reserve expansion, and policy continuity after the mid-term elections. In the long run, the improvement of ETF infrastructure and regulatory clarity lay the foundation for the next round of increases. When the market structure undergoes fundamental changes, the old valuation logic will fail, and new pricing power will be rebuilt.
