BlockBeats News, December 21, IOSG Founding Partner Jocy posted on social media, saying, "2025 is the darkest year for the crypto market and also the dawn of the institutional era. This is a fundamental shift in market structure, and most people are still using old-cycle logic to view the new era. Looking back at the 2025 crypto market, we see a paradigm shift from retail speculation to institutional allocation, with core data showing institutions holding 24% of the market, retail exiting 66%, and the turnover of the crypto market completed. Although BTC experienced a 5.4% decline in 2025, it reached a historical high of $126,080 during the period. Market dominance has transitioned from retail to institutions. Institutions are continuously accumulating at the 'high' as they are looking not at the price but at the cycle. Retail is selling, institutions are buying. The current phase is not the 'top of a bull market' but the 'institutional accumulation period'."In November 2026, there will be midterm elections. The historical pattern is 'policy-first in an election year,' so the investment logic should be as follows: the first half of 2026 is the policy honeymoon period, institutional allocation, bullish on the market; the second half of 2026 sees increased political uncertainty and higher volatility. However, risks such as Federal Reserve policy, a strong U.S. dollar, possible delays in market structure legislation, continued Long-Term Holder (LTH) selling, and uncertainties in midterm election results persist. But on the flip side of risk lies opportunity—when everyone is bearish, it is often the best time to position oneself.Short Term (3-6 months): Oscillation between $87,000-$95,000, institutions continue to accumulateMidterm (first half of 2026): Driven by policy and institutions, targeting $120,000-$150,000Long Term (second half of 2026): Increased volatility, watching election results and policy continuityThis is not a cycle top but the beginning of a new cycle. 2025 marks the acceleration of the institutionalization process in the crypto market. Despite BTC's negative annual return, ETF investors have shown strong HODL resilience. While 2025 appeared to be the worst year for crypto on the surface, it actually represented: the largest-scale supply turnover, the strongest institutional willingness to allocate, the most explicit policy support, and the most extensive infrastructure improvement. Although prices dropped by 5%, ETF inflows reached $25 billion, anticipating a bullish market in the first half of 2026. Key points for 2026 include: progress in market structure legislation, the possibility of expanding strategic Bitcoin reserves, and the continuity of policy post-midterm elections. Looking ahead, the improvement of ETF infrastructure and regulatory clarity lay the foundation for the next round of growth. When the market structure undergoes fundamental change, old valuation logic becomes obsolete, and new pricing power is rebuilt."

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