Pit ④｜Treating luck as strength and drawdowns as unexpected events

This is a pit that almost no one admits to, yet everyone has experienced.

Because it doesn't hurt,

and even makes you feel good at first.

1. This pit usually looks like this

A period of continuous profit

Very small drawdowns

Account curve is beautiful

You start to feel:

My system is very stable.

📌 But you overlook one thing:

The market just happens to align with you.

2. Why do people misjudge this as "strength"?

Because the brain is naturally inclined to:

Magnify success as being due to oneself

Attribute failure to the environment

So you would explain it like this:

Profit: I made a good judgment

Loss: The market suddenly changed

📌 Drawdowns are taken as "unexpected",

rather than a part of the system.

3. How does the market break this illusion?

The method is very simple:

Change the rhythm.

Fluctuations replace trends

False breakouts become more frequent

Profit models fail

You discover:

The original method is no longer effective

Drawdowns start to appear continuously

📌 Only then do you realize:

It wasn't that I got stronger, but that the environment changed.

4. Those who have stepped into this pit will have a cognitive shift

They start to understand:

Drawdowns are not failures

Drawdowns are the "cost" of the system

A curve without drawdowns is dangerous

📌 The real question is no longer:

Why do drawdowns occur?

But rather:

Can I accept this drawdown?

5. How do experts deal with drawdowns?

They do not panic, nor do they deny:

Anticipate in advance

Strict limitations

Regular evaluations

📌 Drawdowns should not be eliminated,

but managed.

In summary

Those who treat luck as strength,

will inevitably treat drawdowns as disasters. $BTC $ETH #ETH走势分析 #比特币波动性