When Donald Trump returned to the White House, much of the crypto market expected a scenario that was already familiar. Pro-crypto rhetoric, more favorable regulation, institutional influxes, and a renewed appetite for risk were supposed to come together to give birth to an iconic bull market.
Instead, as 2025 comes to an end, the crypto market finishes the year significantly lower than it started, being only 20% of its peak reached during the Biden era.
An initial disappointing assessment under the Trump2.0 era
This contradiction lies at the very heart of a growing debate: is crypto simply mired in a tough phase, or has something more fundamental broken?
« It’s time to recognize and admit that the crypto market is broken, » says Ran Neuner, analyst and host of Crypto Banter.
The analyst highlighted an unprecedented disconnect between fundamentals and prices. According to Neuner, 2025 had 'all the necessary elements for a bull market':
Abundant liquidity,
a pro-crypto U.S. government,
spot ETFs (notably on Bitcoin and Ethereum),
an aggressive accumulation of Bitcoin by figures like Michael Saylor,
the participation of certain states and sovereign funds, and
macro assets like stocks or precious metals (gold and silver) reaching historical highs.
« Even with all this, » Neuner declares, « we finish 2025 lower and at only 20% of the level we were at under Biden. »
This suggests that traditional reasoning no longer holds. Indeed, theories around four-year cycles, trapped liquidity, or a crypto IPO moment are increasingly resembling post hoc justifications rather than genuine answers.
According to Neuner, the market now sees only two plausible scenarios going forward:
A hidden structural seller, or a mechanism, that compresses prices, or
crypto is preparing for what he calls 'the mother of all catch-ups,' as the markets will eventually return to equilibrium.
A problem? Not for everyone
Commentator Gordon Gekko, a well-known internet user on X, has asserted that this delicate situation is intentional and structural, but not dysfunctional.
« Nothing is broken: this is exactly what market makers want. Market sentiment is at its lowest in years; leveraged traders are losing everything. It’s not supposed to be easy; only the strongest will be rewarded, » he wrote.
This divide reflects a deeper change in how crypto behaves compared to previous cycles. During Trump’s first term, from 2017 to 2020, crypto thrived in a genuine regulatory void.
Retail investor speculation dominated, leverage-taking remained limitless, and a reflexive dynamic drove prices well beyond their fundamental value.
On the contrary, under Biden, the market has institutionalized. A regulation first focused on repression has limited risk-taking, while ETFs, custodians, and compliance mechanisms have redefined allocation and capital circulation.
Ironically, many of the most anticipated hopes for crypto have arrived during this more restrictive period:
ETFs have opened access, though mainly for the benefit of Bitcoin,
institutions have allocated, but often in a covered and mechanized manner through rebalancing,
liquidity was present, but it spilled into TradFi vehicles rather than towards on-chain ecosystems.
The result: a scale without reflexivity.
Bitcoin resists and altcoins fall
This structural change has been particularly painful for altcoins; today, analysts and KOLs like Shanaka Anslem, among others, believe that the unified crypto market no longer exists.
In 2025, two distinct 'camps' have emerged:
Institutional crypto: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and ETFs with crushed volatility and over longer time horizons.
Attention crypto: millions of tokens compete for ephemeral liquidity and often collapse within days.
Capital no longer flows smoothly from Bitcoin to altcoins, in other words, to the 'altcoin season'; today it goes directly where the initial mandate requires.
« […] Your only options now: play Institutional Crypto with patience and macroeconomic awareness. Or play Attention Crypto with speed and infrastructure, » wrote Anslem.
Thus, according to this influencer, holding altcoins based on a thesis for several months now represents the worst possible strategy.
« You are not ahead of altseason. You are waiting for a market structure that no longer exists, » he added.
Perhaps this is where the conviction of a trader rests: knowing where to look. Lisa Edwards also supports this thesis, urging market participants to understand liquidity flows.
« Things evolve, cycles change, money flows differently. If you wait for the old altseason, you will miss what is actually performing right in front of you, » she stated.
Quinten François also shares this view, noting that the number of tokens in 2025 far eclipses previous cycles. With more than 11 million tokens in circulation, the idea of a generalized 'altseason' like in 2017 or 2021 seems simply obsolete.
Between revaluation and recovery: the post-institutional testing of crypto
Meanwhile, macroeconomic pressures continue to weigh on investor sentiment. Nic Puckrin, financial analyst and co-founder of Coin Bureau, notes that Bitcoin's drop towards its 100-week moving average (MA) reflects new fears related to the AI bubble, uncertainty regarding the future direction of the Fed, and year-end tax-loss selling.
« All this leads to an unexciting end of 2025, » he stated in an email sent to BeInCrypto, noting that BTC could briefly drop below $80,000 if sales accelerate.
At this stage, no one can say whether crypto as we know it is dead or simply undergoing transformation, and investors should – as always – conduct their own research.
However, it is clear that the hopes of the new Trump era clash with a market structure shaped by the Biden era, and that the old code is no longer relevant today.
Discussions among economists and investors on major traditional desks suggest a brutal price readjustment or a violent catch-up rally, which could very well define the new post-institutional identity of crypto.
The moral of the story: whoever tells the future of crypto bites their tongue.
