Donald Trump is pushing a narrative that U.S. inflation is under control, but markets believe a different game may be unfolding behind the scenes.
Recent inflation data has raised credibility concerns. In August 2025, inflation reportedly climbed to 3.1%, a six-month high. As pressure mounted for interest rate cuts, leadership changes at key statistical institutions and unusual gaps in data reporting drew investor attention.
September inflation eased slightly to 3.0%, but October data was never released, breaking normal reporting patterns. Then, November inflation suddenly printed 2.6%, the lowest level since 2022.
Trump has argued that tariffs are helping reduce inflation, but many investors believe the broader objective is to justify faster rate cuts. Under normal conditions, sharply lower inflation would boost markets — yet that hasn’t happened.
👉 Why markets aren’t rallying The core issue is trust. Investors fear the data may be incomplete, politically influenced, or revised later. As a result, confidence remains weak, liquidity stays cautious, and risk assets fail to respond positively to the headline numbers.
Conclusion
Markets don’t trade on numbers alone — they trade on credibility.
Without trust in the data, lower inflation prints are not enough to restore confidence or trigger sustained rallies in stocks or crypto.
Credibility comes first. Liquidity follows.
