Japan's number one #加息 , the global market has become tense, but this has nothing to do with the Sino-U.S. conflict, nor is it that Japan's economy suddenly becomes stronger, but because of a key point: the switch of capital flows.

The background is as follows: Japan has had zero interest rates or even negative interest rates for almost 25 years since 1999. The entities that truly enjoy low-cost financing are large institutions and financial capital. They borrow yen, exchange it for dollars, and then buy Bitcoin, gold, and U.S. stocks. As long as assets rise and financing costs are low, this logic continues to amplify, with a total scale of about 40 trillion dollars. #日本加息

Thus, the yen is like a faucet for the global market. When Japan raises interest rates and the yen appreciates, those who borrow yen for arbitrage face rising costs. Their first reaction is to sell assets and exchange yen to repay debts. As a result, you will see Bitcoin, gold, and U.S. stocks falling at the same time—not because these assets suddenly deteriorated, but because capital is being withdrawn simultaneously. #BTC

The reason for the market tension lies in Japan currently facing a dilemma: not raising interest rates results in significant domestic pressure; raising interest rates leads to short-term pain and also affects the global market. The key question is, once that 40 trillion dollars of capital retreats, where will it land?

In summary: Whether Japan raises interest rates or not is determined not by the Japanese economy, but by whether the global financial market can continue to provide liquidity. When liquidity tightens, the assets that rise the fastest and are speculated on the most will be the first to be affected.