Solana is hanging on the "edge of the abyss", in sync with Bitcoin ($87.8k) and Ethereum ($2,932).
The situation is extremely tense: the asset is holding support literally "by a thread". The difference from the previous value ($126.34) is minimal, indicating complete indecision in the market at this point.
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✅ Technical analysis of Solana (SOL/USDT)
• Current price (Binance): $126.49.
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📉 Market overview
Solana is trading in a zone of maximum risk. The level of $126 currently acts as a "floor" (lower boundary) of the current consolidation. Buyers are trying to defend this line, but buying volumes are weak. Any new "sneeze" from Bitcoin down (below $87.5k) will immediately push Solana down to $120.
Overall trend: Bearish, consolidation at the bottom before the next move.
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📊 Technical indicators
• Table based on the price of $126.49.
● RSI (14) 33.0 🟢
● MACD (12, 26) -2.10 🔴
● EMA (20) $137.50 🔴
● SMA (50) $136.00 🔴
● Stochastic 16.5 🟢
● Momentum -8.00 🔴
(🟢 — Oversold/Potential for a bounce, 🔴 — Sell/Drop, ⚪ — Neutral)
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🔍 Detailed analysis
1. Moving averages (MA)
The price of $126.49 is more than $10 below key averages ($136 and $137.5). This is a huge gap for such an asset.
This confirms the strength of the downward trend.
On the other hand, such a large deviation from the average (20 EMA) often leads to a "return to the mean" (reversion to the mean), that is, to a technical bounce, even if the trend remains bearish.
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2. Oscillators
● Stochastic (16.5): In the deep oversold zone. This is the main argument for the bulls right now. The indicator is "screaming" that sellers are exhausted and at least a small bounce up is needed.
● RSI (33.0): Also very low. If it drops below 30, it will be a signal for immediate short-term buying.
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3. Support and resistance levels
● Resistance zones:
• $130.00: Nearest target on a bounce. Round level and former support.
• $136.00 (50 SMA): "Concrete ceiling". As long as the price is below, it is too early to talk about growth.
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● Support zones:
• $126.00: Current frontline. If the 4-hour candle closes below $125.80, the structure will be broken.
• $123.00: Local wick (minimum).
• $118.00: Next major stop (Demand Zone).
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💡 Movement scenarios
Bearish scenario (Breakdown):
If Bitcoin goes to $87,000, Solana will not hold the current level. A breakdown at $126.00 will lead to a quick impulse down to $118.00 – $120.00. Long stop losses are just below $125.
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Bullish scenario (Dead cat bounce):
Considering Stochastic < 20, a bounce attempt to $129.50 – $130.00 is most likely. This will allow indicators to discharge. Traders may try a long from the current levels with a very short stop (e.g., $125.50).
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Market summary (BTC + ETH + SOL):
All three assets are in the same position — extreme oversold at key supports.
The probability of a local bounce in the next 12-24 hours is very high (due to oversold conditions), but globally the trend remains bearish.
