Just released hot news, everyone get ready! Just now, the U.S. announced the final value of the one-year inflation expectation for December. Guess what? 4.2%! It’s slightly higher than the market expectation of 4.1%! What should players do?
News:
What does this data mean? Simply put, it means that the American public believes that prices will continue to rise over the next year, and inflation expectations have not decreased. This is definitely a key signal for the global market, including our cryptocurrency space. The Federal Reserve is constantly monitoring inflation data to decide whether to cut interest rates. With expectations still so firm, it’s like pouring warm water on the market— the 'big rocket' for interest rate cuts won't be launched so quickly, and money in the market won't suddenly increase. Therefore, from a macro perspective, this isn’t good news for all risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, and it even adds weight to the 'overall bearish' atmosphere. Funds will be more cautious, and a bull market will need to wait for clearer signals.
Technical analysis scouting:
Looking at the ETH in our hands, the 4-hour chart is very interesting now, lingering around $2976. I've drawn lines for everyone to see clearly:
Above, the pressure is immense: $3100 is a strong resistance for the recent rebound, and further up $3150 is a fortress guarded by heavy troops. Without volume to charge through, it’s basically a sure loss.
The lower levels are heavily fortified: the critical position that cannot be overlooked is $2880, which is the recent lifeline for bulls and bears. If it falls below, the next target will be $2770, or even $2700, $2600 as support levels.
Technical indicators 'fighting': the most interesting thing is MACD, where the yellow and white lines actually formed a 'golden cross' bullish signal below the 0 axis, indicating that the short-term downward momentum is weakening and there is a demand for a rebound. However! The trading volume is shrinking, a typical 'volume-price divergence', having the posture but lacking strength, raises questions about the quality of this golden cross; it could be a 'trap to lure buyers'.
Operational suggestions and what to do with subsequent market trends:
If you are in cash/light positions: don’t rush to chase the rise; the current price is stuck in an awkward position. Focus on the 2880-2900 area; if it can hold without breaking, consider gradually entering to bet on a rebound, targeting the $3100 resistance level.
If you hold positions: if the price rebounds close to $3100 and fails to break through, it’s a good opportunity to reduce positions and hedge. Lowering costs allows you to take control.
Personal opinion:
On the news front, the background music is 'bearish', but technically, it's playing a 'short-term rebound' tune. I believe this is more like a process of oscillating between the key resistance levels ($3100-$3150) and key support levels ($2880). Before the Federal Reserve releases real good news, the market is unlikely to have strong momentum for a one-sided surge; the overall pattern remains weak and oscillating. That 'golden cross', don’t take it too seriously before the volume expands.
Before the Federal Reserve truly 'turns around', saving strength and patiently waiting for that decisive opportunity is the best strategy. Do you think ETH can hold the wall at $2880 this time? Let’s discuss your views in the comments section! Follow me to find hooks of certainty in complicated market conditions!
The market always has opportunities; the key is to operate calmly. Bai Yue will continue to monitor on-chain dynamics for everyone, moving steadily forward together! Follow Bai Yue and participate in every attack of Bai Yue's villagers! Bai Yue will announce the specific entry times and real-time news in the village every day!
