On Friday at 08:00 UTC, the expiration of Bitcoin and Ethereum options totaling over $3.16 billion will take place on the Deribit platform. This event will be the last major settlement of derivatives before the Christmas holidays.
In the context of traditional liquidity decline at the end of the year, investors are exercising caution. Market participants are waiting for new factors to determine the direction of price movement.
Market expectations before the calculations for Bitcoin
The main volume of the upcoming expiration relates to Bitcoin. The nominal value of contracts for this asset is about $2.69 billion. At the time of preparing the material, the price of the first cryptocurrency was at $87194. This corresponds to an increase of 0.54% over the last day.
Data on open interest indicates a balanced but moderately defensive position of market participants. The volume of call options on Bitcoin is 17506 contracts, while the number of put options has reached 13309. Therefore, the put/call ratio is at 0.76 with a total open interest of 30815 contracts.
Experts note a concentration of positions around $88000. This indicates a high probability of quotes remaining in the current range until the completion of calculations. Significant growth is only possible with a confident breakthrough of resistance. Furthermore, investor caution before the holidays additionally limits the potential for upward movement.
The situation with Ethereum is characterized by different parameters. The total value of expiring contracts for this asset is about $473 million. The current price of ETH is at $2928, having risen by 3.37% over the last 24 hours. Meanwhile, the point of 'maximum pain' is located significantly higher — at $3100.
The ratio of positions in this segment looks more symmetrical. In particular, 78524 call contracts have been recorded against 83547 put contracts. Thus, the put/call ratio is 1.06 with a total interest of 162071 contracts.
Unlike the situation with Bitcoin, the distribution of positions in Ethereum covers a wider range of strike prices. According to analysts, this indicates uncertainty regarding the short-term trend. The interest in buying above the $3400 level maintains the potential for sharp movements. However, market participants prefer a wait-and-see tactic until the official moment of contract execution.
Forecast of the situation development at the beginning of 2026
After the current expiration, market attention will shift to the calculations on December 26 and positions for the first months of 2026. A significant volume of put options with a strike of $85000 for the end of December has already been recorded on the Deribit exchange. At the same time, bets on aggressive growth in the short term seem less likely.
However, long-term capital flows demonstrate a more constructive outlook. Investors continue to open positions in anticipation of a bullish phase in 2026. Such dynamics indicate a sustained fundamental optimism among major market participants.
Thus, in the run-up to the holidays, Bitcoin and Ethereum are in a state of temporary stabilization. The decision of the Bank of Japan on the interest rate may also affect the quotes. Nevertheless, after the expiration period, a reorganization of the market structure is expected.
