Ethereum L2 ecosystem under pressure; Solana DePIN breaks through against the tide
Ethereum’s current price is $1583.76, up slightly 0.541% over the past 24 hours, but the fear index at 12 shows the market is in extreme fear. Under these conditions, the Ethereum L2 ecosystem faces a structural contradiction: while the total TVL is still slowly increasing, the average locked value per user continues to decline. As recently noted in the UEX daily report, Arbitrum and Optimism’s average daily transaction count rose 18% month-over-month, but the transaction median value shrank by 32%, suggesting that a large amount of low-value transfers and “yield-sniping” scripts are consuming block space. My view is that this is essentially the root cause of pressure on L2 token prices—when liquidity within the ecosystem is diluted and real user usage scenarios are insufficient, the valuations of $ARB and $OP cannot be supported by a “trading volume” narrative. Even more importantly, Ethereum mainnet gas fees have remained subdued for a long time, further weakening users’ urgency to migrate to L2.
What signals to watch: In Arbitrum’s ecosystem, if core DeFi protocols such as GMX or Camelot see their daily active users and TVL decline for three consecutive weeks, L2 tokens may face another round of sell-off. Currently, ETH at $1583 is relatively low, but the rebound height of L2 tokens often depends on whether ETH can hold above $1600 and lift overall risk sentiment. For short-term traders, it’s advisable to avoid buying L2 tokens on the left side when the fear index is below 15, and to wait until ETH breaks out above $1650 on increased volume before considering following.
Solana’s situation is completely different. SOL at $72.92 is up 2.849% in the past 24 hours—strongest among the three major chains. The UEX daily report mentions a key dynamic: DePIN projects in Solana’s ecosystem (decentralized physical infrastructure networks) such as Helium Mobile and Hivemapper have recorded record-setting on-chain data upload volumes over the past week. My view is that the DePIN track is becoming the biggest narrative difference for Solana versus Ethereum L2—it doesn’t rely on TVL or transaction volume, but instead generates value through real-world device connections. The current SOL rebound is largely driven by this, because the market is starting to recognize that while other chains compete for liquidity, Solana is securing hardware access.
Risks are also obvious: DePIN tokens themselves have market caps mostly in the tens of millions of dollars, so the pull on SOL may be limited. What signals to watch: If Helium Mobile’s subscriber count surpasses 100,000 in early July (currently about 65,000), that would be a strong catalyst and could push SOL toward a move to $80. Conversely, if user growth stalls, SOL may trade sideways around $70 until Ethereum stabilizes before any further breakout.
Interactive question: Can the DePIN track become Solana’s long-term engine for diverging from Ethereum’s independent trajectory, or is it only a short-term speculative hotspot? Feel free to leave a comment and discuss.
Ethereum’s current price is $1583.76, up slightly 0.541% over the past 24 hours, but the fear index at 12 shows the market is in extreme fear. Under these conditions, the Ethereum L2 ecosystem faces a structural contradiction: while the total TVL is still slowly increasing, the average locked value per user continues to decline. As recently noted in the UEX daily report, Arbitrum and Optimism’s average daily transaction count rose 18% month-over-month, but the transaction median value shrank by 32%, suggesting that a large amount of low-value transfers and “yield-sniping” scripts are consuming block space. My view is that this is essentially the root cause of pressure on L2 token prices—when liquidity within the ecosystem is diluted and real user usage scenarios are insufficient, the valuations of $ARB and $OP cannot be supported by a “trading volume” narrative. Even more importantly, Ethereum mainnet gas fees have remained subdued for a long time, further weakening users’ urgency to migrate to L2.
What signals to watch: In Arbitrum’s ecosystem, if core DeFi protocols such as GMX or Camelot see their daily active users and TVL decline for three consecutive weeks, L2 tokens may face another round of sell-off. Currently, ETH at $1583 is relatively low, but the rebound height of L2 tokens often depends on whether ETH can hold above $1600 and lift overall risk sentiment. For short-term traders, it’s advisable to avoid buying L2 tokens on the left side when the fear index is below 15, and to wait until ETH breaks out above $1650 on increased volume before considering following.
Solana’s situation is completely different. SOL at $72.92 is up 2.849% in the past 24 hours—strongest among the three major chains. The UEX daily report mentions a key dynamic: DePIN projects in Solana’s ecosystem (decentralized physical infrastructure networks) such as Helium Mobile and Hivemapper have recorded record-setting on-chain data upload volumes over the past week. My view is that the DePIN track is becoming the biggest narrative difference for Solana versus Ethereum L2—it doesn’t rely on TVL or transaction volume, but instead generates value through real-world device connections. The current SOL rebound is largely driven by this, because the market is starting to recognize that while other chains compete for liquidity, Solana is securing hardware access.
Risks are also obvious: DePIN tokens themselves have market caps mostly in the tens of millions of dollars, so the pull on SOL may be limited. What signals to watch: If Helium Mobile’s subscriber count surpasses 100,000 in early July (currently about 65,000), that would be a strong catalyst and could push SOL toward a move to $80. Conversely, if user growth stalls, SOL may trade sideways around $70 until Ethereum stabilizes before any further breakout.
Interactive question: Can the DePIN track become Solana’s long-term engine for diverging from Ethereum’s independent trajectory, or is it only a short-term speculative hotspot? Feel free to leave a comment and discuss.