Share insights on the current market liquidity

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Right now, there is a lack of performance from counterparties.

Favorable conditions bring counterparties, which will lead the market to liquidate counterparties

Because the market lacks sustained capital to drive coin prices

Thus, the crypto market is extremely sensitive

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Assuming there are a large number of quantitative/market makers participating in the market, but coin prices remain stable

When favorable conditions arise

First, event-driven institutions will chase long positions

Retail investors will also lag behind event-driven institutions and similarly chase long positions

However, the favorable capital is not continuous. Event-driven institutions will quickly close positions, leading to market selling pressure. Retail investors are impulsive, not continuous.

This does not lead to the inflow of pricing level capital

Therefore, short-term favorable conditions drive price fluctuations while also disrupting the original game relationship

"Rebalancing" will bring about counter changes in the market

Thus, the more short-term favorable conditions there are, the easier it is to create a door

With Christmas approaching, the entire market is heavily defensive, and capital is very conservative

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When will the breakthrough occur?

Change in pricing level or real improvement in liquidity

Here, we need to distinguish the adjustments in liquidity management tools

I think everyone still needs to learn about options to study arbitrage from a higher-level perspective

Otherwise, I really suggest watching and acting less

rv could be very important

The speed of rv suppression actually reflects the current scale of institutions in the market

As for directional judgment, I believe it is already lagging

Of course, shorting is also more advantageous

Because retail investors see favorable conditions and tend to go long

When they see unfavorable conditions, they do not tend to short/sell but will hold on

These two are clearly unbalanced