Japan's interest rate hike, the shoe has dropped.
The Moments feed is instantly flooded: 'Negative news is fully priced in, quick buy the dip!' —
I almost believed it.
But the truth is: 'When negative news is fully priced in, it's positive' is just a bowl of toxic chicken soup in the face of yen carry trading.
Open history: The last three interest rate hikes in Japan saw Bitcoin not rebound, but rather collapse — 23%, 26%, 31%, each one worse than the last. Each time, it first rose to lure people in, then crashed down. Why?
Because the real negative news isn't the 'interest rate hike' itself, but rather the withdrawal of global liquidity behind it, which has just begun.
Today the market seems quiet, but on-chain data is already screaming: large transfers are surging, exchanges are flooded with massive amounts of tokens, perpetual funding rates are turning negative... smart money is quietly retreating, leaving only retail investors still preparing to catch the falling knife in a 'bullish illusion.'
What’s even scarier is that this is not the end. Ueda Kazuo said: interest rates are still far from neutral levels. Japan's tightening has just begun, while the Federal Reserve is dragging its feet on rate cuts—this mismatch of 'Japan tightening, America dragging' will lead to a prolonged wave of arbitrage liquidation, weeks? Months? No one knows.
So, don’t rush to call a reversal.
True 'bad news has been fully priced in' at least has to wait until: yen carry trades are cleared, leverage rates return to safe levels, and market sentiment freezes to an ice point.
And now? It’s just the storm lifting the first tile.
If you are still asking 'is it time to buy the dip?', you might as well ask yourself first: when everyone thinks it's an opportunity, who is quietly selling?
— This is also why more and more people are starting to turn their attention to assets like @usddio during volatile cycles.
It doesn’t gamble with you on ups and downs, nor relies on a single policy or news, but instead depends on excessive collateral, multi-chain reserves, and a real-time verifiable mechanism to provide a 'ballast stone' in the winter of liquidity withdrawal.
When the market is surging, everyone is a genius;
When the tide goes out, you will realize:
What can navigate uncertainty is never luck, but a life jacket that was put on in advance.
#USDD is a strategy based on stability, not just a slogan.
While others are torn between 'buying the dip or running away,' some have already chosen: not to predict the storm, but to prepare the ship.
Do you think this time the script after the interest rate hike will be different? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments.
