The price of Ethereum (ETH) is likely to end December in the red, marking a fourth consecutive monthly decline. This situation could put some pressure on large investors who have accumulated ETH throughout the year.
If ETH continues to decline, these holders will have to choose between exiting at neutral levels or accepting losses.
What is happening with Ethereum whales?
Data from the ETH Whale Unrealized Profit Ratio indicator, which tracks addresses holding between 1,000 and over 100,000 ETH, shows a continuous decline over the past four months.
Indeed, the ratio is approaching zero. This indicates that large ETH investors now have an average cost close to the current market price, with little to no unrealized profit.
From a more positive perspective, the buying behavior of this group exerts a strong influence on market trends. This reinforces the belief that the current price of the second crypto in the sector represents an opportunity. The continuation of ETH purchases at these levels suggests a potential low zone for coin accumulation.
"They haven’t taken profits in this cycle, and they even continue to increase their holdings. This means the current price range represents an opportunity to buy ETH at the lowest possible price," commented CryptoQuant analyst CW8900.
However, a bearish outlook raises a key question: what happens if the market downturn prolongs for four months? In this case, whale-type investors would suffer real losses. Two factors suggest that this scenario remains plausible.
Two factors pushing whales to act in December
First, the Ethereum Premium index from Coinbase turned negative during the third week of December.
This indicator measures the percentage gap between the price of ETH on Coinbase Pro (USD pair) and Binance (USDT pair). A negative value indicates that prices on Coinbase are lower, reflecting selling pressure from American investors.
After filtering out surrounding distracting elements using the 30-day exponential moving average, the index has remained negative for over a month. Thus, selling pressure on Coinbase is intensifying, and the price of ETH could still drop in the coming days.
The second factor comes from the disinterest of retail investors. Indeed, this December, on-chain activity for ETH hit its lowest level of the year.
Meanwhile, the chart of active addresses sending ETH shows a distinctly bearish trend. Network activity has significantly cooled. Without buying pressure from retail investors, ETH struggles to meet institutional demand to trigger a bullish breakout.
"The lack of retail participation may limit short-term gains, as retail flows are generally the driving force of momentum during initial rebounds," commented CryptoOnchain.
Meanwhile, the realized price for ETH accumulating addresses corresponds to a key support line at around $3,000. ETH is currently trading around $2,800 and seems poised to drop below this support threshold.
These elements put whales in a position where they may be forced to act. Selling to recover capital or limit losses could exacerbate downward pressure; this could even trigger panic selling on an institutional scale.
Despite these risks, a recent report from Bitwise maintains an optimistic outlook for 2026. Indeed, according to this report, the price of ETH could reach new historical highs sooner than expected.
The moral of the story: A crypto whale at the wall can always sit back and wait for it to crumble.
