Inflation rates in the United States slowed down more than expected in November, which came as a surprise to the analytical consensus and could adjust short-term market and Federal Reserve expectations. According to data published on December 18, 2025, the integrated consumer price index (CPI) increased by 2.7% year-on-year, which is significantly lower than the consensus forecast of 3.1%.
At the same time, the core CPI, which excludes volatile components (food and energy), increased by 2.6% year-on-year. This figure also did not reach the forecast value of 3.0%. There is a noticeable acceleration in the decrease of pressure on consumer prices, clearly indicating a consolidation of disinflationary trends towards the end of 2025.
Is this a bullish signal for the crypto market?
The combination of abnormally low results only intensified the perception that inflation is slowing down much faster than anticipated at the government and industry levels just a few weeks ago. Now, core inflation is consistently below the 3% mark, not rising there since the recent price spike in mid-2025.
The latest statistical slice reduces the argument for a long-term hold of tight monetary conditions and strengthens assumptions about an earlier transition by the Fed to easing policies compared to previously laid scenarios.
Financial participants are likely to perceive this set of information as a factor favoring a rate cut, especially concerning the early months of 2026. Low inflation parameters reduce the level of real yields and pressure on the US dollar—both indicators have been sources of strong constraints for risky assets over the past months.
Indicators of risky instruments, affecting not only stocks but also Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency sector, were already in a phase of cautious positioning before the report's publication, creating a foundation for a sharp revaluation after the new data is processed by market participants.
Bitcoin and key segments of the crypto market approached the CPI publication in a consolidation phase. Market traders were pricing in a scenario of increased volatility. For digital assets, such an inflation surprise typically creates a macroeconomic stimulus—softening inflation expectations lead to looser liquidity conditions and an increased appetite for risk.
The nearest price dynamics will be determined by the speed of adjusting expectations for the Fed's rates and whether additional buying momentum will manifest after the initial market reaction.
What will influence further? Key factors of attention:
Change in probabilities of the Fed's decision to lower the key rate
Reaction in the market for US Treasury bond yields
Dynamics of the strength or weakness of the dollar
Continuation of reactions of risky assets until the end of the year
Thus, the CPI release for November 2025 is clear: inflation is cooling faster than expectations. Financial participants—both traders and institutional investors—will need to adapt quickly to the new parameters.
