Reviewing the deep pullback of ETH in April this year was actually a typical case of "cognitive dissonance." At that time, ETH dropped to a low of 1385. From the perspective of price structure and emotional feedback, it completely matched the characteristics of a traditional bear market's end: trend breakdown, emotional collapse, and consensus disintegration. If we judge based on past bull market experiences, such a decline often signifies the end of a market cycle. However, the answer given by the market clearly does not follow the old script. ETH subsequently rose continuously from 1385, pushing all the way up to 4956, not only completing a trend reversal but also setting a new historical high. What this reveals is not a "judgment error," but that the underlying structure of the market has changed. With the systematic intervention of Wall Street funds, the rhythm of the market, the depth of pullbacks, and the ways trends continue are no longer applicable to the old model that was purely led by retail investors. Old experiences are not entirely invalid, but in the current environment, they can easily be validated in the opposite direction by the market. At that time, the market consensus on ETH was extremely pessimistic, questioning its narrative, technology, and long-term value; yet, the real driving force behind the market reversal was precisely the capital restructuring that occurred after the collapse of consensus. This logic is equally applicable at the current stage. The current denial of many altcoins does not necessarily mean they "have no opportunity"; rather, it may be the emotional trough before a trend develops. The market never takes off when consensus is strongest; trends often emerge from the deepest divergences and lowest emotions. There is only one true rule: at the moment when a market starts, most people have already gotten off the train in advance. Understanding this, what you see will not just be price fluctuations, but how the market repeatedly, in an counterintuitive manner, establishes its own trends. $HMSTR $ZEC $ZRC #巨鲸动向 #加密市场观察 #ETH走势分析