🔥The next two days, Japan's interest rate hike officially enters the countdown.
A few days ago, I actually mentioned that the news of Japan's interest rate hike may have limited direct impact on BTC in the short term, for a simple reason—Bitcoin's share in the global financial system is still too small to have a real linkage with sovereign monetary policy.
But the situation has started to change a bit in the past two days.
I looked at the global search popularity of the keyword 'Japan interest rate hike,' and found that this time the popularity is the highest it has been in the past ten years, even surpassing the few interest rate hikes in 2024.
This indicates that the current market sentiment is extremely sensitive and filled with panic, with almost all investors paying attention to this matter.
From an emotional standpoint, this state of 'national search' often means that expectations have already been overdrawn.
From a chart review perspective, after the last three interest rate hikes in Japan, the market generally entered a short-term downtrend, although there were other macro factors at play at the time, the overall direction remained weak.
The current market consensus is—that Japan's interest rate hike is almost a foregone conclusion, with a probability close to 100%, it's just a matter of when it will be officially announced.
So the key going forward is not 'whether or not to raise,' but the market reaction after the interest rate hike:
When everyone is in panic waiting for 'bad news,' it often means that the worst news has already been priced in.
