Major Bitcoin investors on Bitfinex are gaining attention from the market again. Analysts tracking leveraged position data point out that the number of margin Long Bitcoin positions held by 'whales' has surged rapidly, nearing the recent peak level observed in March 2024.
This new position accumulation occurs even as overall market participation slows down, with everyone starting to question what these deep-pocketed traders are signaling.
The long positions of whale groups on Bitfinex reaching record highs indicate what
According to James Van Straten, an on-chain data analyst, whales on Bitfinex continue to steadily increase their positions.
“Bitfinex whales continue to increase their long margin bitcoin positions, nearing the highs of March 2024, up 36% over the past 3 months,” he wrote on X (Twitter).
This data suggests a continuous accumulation trend since September, with long positions expanding during price softening more than during buying pressure.
Even Bitfinex itself has acknowledged this activity, emphasizing that experienced large traders may be building positions with confidence while retail investors reduce risk.
This divergent behavior is considered interesting, as even though Bitcoin's price has fluctuated in recent weeks, whale accumulation has clearly increased.
Historically, these long positions on Bitfinex have been associated with strategically leveraged traders, who often accumulate positions during price declines rather than following upward momentum.
Samson Mow, a crypto industry executive, stated that the current situation is a transfer of coins from impatient sellers to long-term holders.
“Bitfinex whales are buying assets from newcomers,” he stated, highlighting the difference between weak selling from retail and the ongoing buying from large accounts.
Contradictory signals, but not a timing tool.
The whale long position metric on Bitfinex is considered a leading indicator that technical analysts always keep an eye on. However, interpretation requires subtlety.
This group of traders clearly tends to increase long positions during price declines and gradually reduce positions when prices regain strength. Thus, high long positions often arise after or in the next phase following price increases, not beforehand.
Van Straten warns that the value of the signals lies in observing directional reversals, not just absolute numerical levels.
Even in the short term, when trends shift, he explains that the gradual reduction of these long positions may be more significant than just the size currently held.
However, not everyone agrees with the reliability of this indicator. Analyst Parabear Nick has questioned the overly confident interpretation of whale data, dismissing some narratives that believe whale accumulation alone guarantees higher prices.
Past data has indeed supported a more cautious perspective, as whale long positions have previously touched peak levels in several cycles and often remained high for months before significant price movements occurred.
Therefore, while this metric effectively reflects market positioning and sentiment, it should be considered alongside other tools such as open interest, funding rates, and macroeconomic liquidity.
This recent accumulation occurred during a period when open interest across all derivatives markets was trending downward, signaling less participation from retail investors and short-term speculators.
As a result, the concentration of leverage among whales becomes increasingly important, as large players will have more control over price direction during transitions when there are fewer speculative contract holders.
What remains unclear is the exact timing, as the higher long positions of whales, while indicating expectations of higher prices, do not mean that a breakout will occur immediately.
A crucial turning point will arrive if and when we see these positions start to close, because historically, such changes have often preceded market mode shifts.
