Brothers, I am Jun Ge. I just saw the latest news from Glassnode, and to summarize the Bitcoin market in one sentence: There's a ceiling above and a floor below; this middle section is the chessboard drawn for you by the main forces.


Data doesn't lie. The $95,000 threshold is the 0.75 percentile, which is a technical ceiling and also a psychological barrier. How many brothers who didn't sell at the peak of $120,000 are now anxiously waiting to break even? Isn't the selling pressure significant? As the price approaches, it's like triggering automatic sell orders; every rebound gets pushed back down. Looking below, the $81,000 'real market average' is very stable, indicating that patient veterans are bottom-fishing, but they aren’t pushing the price up, just supporting the market—this attitude is very clear.
So now the pattern is very clear, the range of the fluctuation box is from 81,000 to 95,000, and the options market has stamped this range with real money positions. The near-month volatility has narrowed, which means big funds also believe that it cannot jump out in the short term, so simply lying flat and making some waves is the way to go. Spot demand is weak, and institutions are also playing high sell low buy, don't expect any 'white knight' to charge in with huge funds for a V-reversal, that's unrealistic.
My analysis is that this is not the starting point of a trend market, but rather a stage of chip exchange before the trend forms. What the main force is doing is using this well-known range to repeatedly wash the plate. In times of panic, they buy a little of your chips at the bottom, and in optimistic times, they sell a little to you at the top. Your mindset gets worn down, your chips get shaken out, and their holding costs are lowered. This is an old script in the crypto circle.
Tell the fans what to do next.
First, recognize the situation and give up on fantasy. Don't always think 'this time is different', feeling that it's about to break through 100,000 and rush towards the stars and the sea. A real breakthrough signal is either a strong volume stabilizing at 95,000 and impacting the cost benchmark of 101,500, or a new, sustained wave of liquidity appears. Currently, neither of these two conditions has been seen.
Second, the operation strategy follows the box. For brothers with heavy positions, every time the price approaches the area from 93,000 to 95,000, it's time to reduce positions and lower risks, don't be greedy, and don't wait until it breaks before slapping your thigh. For those with light positions or who want to enter the market, consider the area from 81,000 to 85,000 as your main observation area, you can layout in batches, but absolutely do not go All in at once. Leave enough bullets in case the 'floor tile' is temporarily smashed through for a final wash.
Third, maintain a stable mindset; surviving is the most important. A bull market is for you to make money, but a bear market and a fluctuating market are for you to accumulate coins. At this stage, being able to buy the same amount of coins for less money is a victory. Don't let the daily fluctuations of hundreds or thousands of points make you anxious; the main force is waiting for you to be unable to stand it and get off the bus. Remember, what counts in the crypto circle is not who runs fast, but who lives long and can endure.
In short, glassnode's data has broken through the paper window. For the next period of time, it is highly likely that we will still walk in this script. As veterans, what we need to do is respect the market structure, utilize market rules, keep our hands steady, identify the right points, and preserve our strength. Wait until one day there is a real volume breakthrough of the box, or there is a desperate panic crash, then we will reveal the bullets we have accumulated; at that time, the initiative will be in your hands.
The bigger the storm, the more expensive the fish. But before catching the big fish, you must first ensure that the boat won't capsize. Stay steady, we can win.