First layer | Direction & Market status (status model)
Direction judgment: slightly bullish (not strongly bullish)
Market status: before launch → probing launch
Core conclusion in one sentence:
👉 ZEC has completed the main liquidation below, it is currently not the end of the rebound, but the 'preparation phase for upward liquidation'.
Key evidence (only keep valid ones):
Lower range 372–365 (1D+1W Grade A liquidation pool) has been completed
Current price can stabilize above 390, no panic on retracement
OI is high and flat, no collapse (indicating no retreat)
Net inflow of funds in high cycle during the contract, spot outflow = wash筹
OBV did not cross MAOBV → Only allowed to test, not allowed to have a heavy position pattern
Status conclusion:
❌ Not in a downtrend
❌ Not during the climax rise
✅ In the 'grinding stage before launch'
Second layer | Route and key points (route model)
Main line A (≈65% | maintain)
Volatility absorption → Breaks above 405 → Liquidation 415 / 430
Confirmation point
1H/4H stable above 400
Pullback to 395 does not break
Contract funds continue to net inflow
Deviation point
Falls below 388 and cannot quickly recover
Switching point
Falls below 385 → Switch to sub-line B
Sub-line B (≈25%)
False breakdown → Pin insertion 382–375 → Pull back to the main line
Nature: Wash the last batch of short positions
Characteristics: Quick drop, quick pull
Do not change the medium-term bullish structure
Danger line C (≤10%)
Fails to hold 372 → Dips to 360 or lower
Trigger condition (not seen at the moment):
Capital flow continuously accelerates outflow
OI significantly collapses
Currently belongs to the 'defensive route'
Third layer | Position and execution (what you actually do)
Long position execution (main logic)
① Testing position (occupy space, prevent empty stepping)
Entry: 392–395
Risk point: 388
Failure point: 385
Limit point: 372
Target: 405 → 415
Position suggestion: 10%–20%
Qualitative: Counter pull type, not allowed to have a pattern
② Confirm position (main position)
Entry: Pullback above 405 does not break
Risk point: 398
Failure point: 392
Limit point: 385
Target: 430–445
Qualitative: Structural/trend type, can take big profits
③ Limit position (PDM big profit)
Entry: 375–370
Risk point: 365
Failure point: 360
Limit point: 350
Target: 405 → 445
Qualitative: Structural reversal point, only execute during pin insertion
Short position execution (only one type allowed)
Counter pull (short term)
Entry: 415–420
Risk point: 425
Failure point: 430
Limit point: 445
Target: 400
Qualitative: Pullback single, absolutely cannot have a pattern
The last sentence is a big straightforward execution
👉 390–395 is the cost area the main force is willing to defend, 405 is the life-and-death line for whether to launch.
👉 You don't need to 'guess the direction' now, you just need to get on the bus at the allowed points, don't chase, don't bear, don't be stubborn.
