Overall, it seems to be a bull market, but I believe the upcoming market will definitely be a bear market! Please read the following before arguing against it.
I firmly believe in a bear market, which is different from the overall viewpoint. I think all rebounds in a bear market will ultimately be reversed by bearish candles. The price of 80,000 cannot hold, and at least in the first half of next year, I absolutely do not dare to bottom fish for long-term investments. The moving averages have already broken down; I can only make some short trades to earn a little money.
The reasons I see it this way are as follows:
First, the monthly line of BTC has crossed dead, under such circumstances, what reason is there to say that there will be a big bull market later? At least we need to wait for both the fast line and slow line to return to around the 0-axis before a big bull market can possibly arrive.
Second, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 are currently at high levels, and their decline is only a matter of time. Can BTC still have an independent market trend unaffected by them?
Third, there is no expectation of interest rate cuts next year; on the contrary, there may be interest rate hikes. Without liquidity, where will the funds come from to push the market stronger?
Fourth, during the last bull market, institutions and exchanges had constant blowups, like BitConnect, Three Arrows Capital, FTX, which all had major problems, and exchanges like Huobi and Hobit also exited the market. But what about this round? I haven't seen any major institutions or exchanges blow up yet.
Fifth, this round of Bitcoin has dropped from 126,000 to 80,000, a decline of 36%. In the last bull market, Bitcoin fell from 69,000 to 44,000, also a drop of 36%, but then 44,000 directly fell to 15,800, a staggering drop of 63%. Therefore, I believe there is still a significant downside potential in this round.
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