Bitcoin remains close to a level that has much greater significance than the word price. Analysts point to the zone defining the true market average price (TMMP), that is, the average purchase rate on the chain by non-mining investors.
According to CryptoQuant, this level has become a psychological and structural boundary. It checks whether the belief is strong enough to absorb supply, or if faith is beginning to break.
Bitcoin trades at the 'price of faith' when the level of 81,500 USD tests market belief
On-chain indicators show stress in the middle of the cycle, technical resistance continually limits gains, and analysts are now openly divided. As a result, we have a fragile impasse between:
long-term holders defending their cost basis and
sellers increasingly willing to exit at zero.
In this context, TMMP (True Market Mean Price) becomes Bitcoin's line of defense. TMMP is more than a technical indicator. It is a collective psychological anchor that indicates the average price at which investors entered the market.
When Bitcoin moves in this area, investors must choose: hold despite uncertainty or sell at zero. This moment of choice increases market pressure and often heralds another significant move.
Meanwhile, CryptoQuant analyst Moreno sets TMMP for Bitcoin at 81,500 USD as the entry level for most real capital into the market.
Historically, trading Bitcoin above this level has favored accumulation during downturns. However, losing this zone transforms it into resistance. This happens because investors seek to exit around the average entry cost. This mechanism is also at work now. Moreno explained:
„When BTC is above this level, investors usually feel comfortable… When the price loses it, the same zone often turns into resistance because those who bought close to the average cost use the rebounds to exit.”
Observations indicate that the current attempt around 81,500 USD puts investors in a position to choose: persist in uncertainty or sell at zero.
Previous cycles show that this zone can determine the market. In the bull market of 2020–2021, TMMP was support. In 2022, it turned into resistance as confidence waned. Therefore, in the current situation, the role it plays now may determine the next direction of Bitcoin.
An additional behavioral layer is brought by the AVIV Ratio — an on-chain metric comparing the current market valuation with the realized valuation, with particular emphasis on investor profitability. Unlike momentum indicators, AVIV reflects sentiment based on realized gains.
Currently, the AVIV indicator is shrinking to the range of 0.8–0.9, which historically correlates with transitional phases in the middle of the cycle. Markets do not collapse, but they also do not clearly move in one direction. CryptoQuant analyst added:
„If Bitcoin holds above TMMP (81,500 USD), and AVIV stabilizes (0.8–0.9), it means that investors are absorbing supply and defending their cost basis. When the price loses TMMP, and AVIV continues to shrink — profitability decreases, and conviction weakens.”
Such conditions most often exert pressure on weaker investors not through sudden collapse, but through prolonged stagnation.
As a result, the more unrealized gains dwindle, the quieter we check the strength of conviction. This sets the stage for new accumulation or a descent in search of demand.
Technical resistance exacerbates market paralysis as macroeconomic fear deepens the debate.
So far, Bitcoin's price movements have not provided relief. The king of cryptocurrencies has repeatedly failed to break the year's opening, deepening volatility among momentum traders and technical participants.
Moreover, the failure to regain this level amplifies the impression that the potential for growth is currently limited.
This technical impasse reflects a deeper ideological divide in the market. Veterans, burdened by the peak of 2021 and subsequent declines of 70%, are increasingly sensitive to technical signals and cyclical models. In this context, analyst PlanB wrote:
„Why is Bitcoin not rising? Because 50% are selling (old hands terrified by 2021, technical investors looking at the relative strength index, advocates of the 4-year cycle expecting a bear market 2 years after the halving), and 50% are buying (fundamental investors, TradFi, banks). An epic battle… until the sellers run out of ammunition.”
Institutional and traditional financial participants care less about short-term cycles. Their systematic accumulation helps absorb supply, but it is still not enough to break the market out of consolidation.
An additional uncertainty was introduced by macro analyst Luke Gromen, who recently revealed that he sold most of his Bitcoins around 95,000 USD. Gromen cited long-term technical breakdowns and systemic concerns. Moreover, his decision published in the Swan Bitcoin No Second Best podcast reinforced bearish sentiment at a time when investor profits are sharply declining.
Hence, Gromen pointed to weakening long-term momentum, including Bitcoin's failed attempts to set new highs against gold and concerns about a fragile market looking ahead to 2026.
Although the Swan hosts questioned his conclusions, the sale itself echoed among investors observing weakening conviction at key support.
The exits of well-known figures strongly affect investor psychology, especially when the price tightens, and on-chain signals suggest declining profitability.
Will faith in Bitcoin hold the line?
BTC stands today at a crossroads, dependent more on determination than on media hype. If the price holds above 81,500 USD, and the AVIV indicator stabilizes, it will be a sign that investors want to defend their acquisition costs. This is a prerequisite for the trend to continue.
Meanwhile, failure could prove costly. A clear drop below TMMP, combined with further tightening of AVIV, will show that mere faith is no longer enough. Then the market must seek demand at lower levels.
To read the latest cryptocurrency market analysis from BeInCrypto, click here.
