Coin friends, Zhao Gongming has arrived! Just saw a potentially game-changing heavyweight news for HYPE: the foundation's proposal to destroy tokens worth 1.02 billion USD, accounting for 13.7% of the total circulation! This is equivalent to directly reducing the market size, which is the strongest deflationary benefit in the crypto world. But why hasn't the price skyrocketed yet? Is there a pitfall behind this? We must discuss it thoroughly today!
News:
If this proposal is passed, it means that there will be 37.11 million fewer HYPE tokens permanently in the market. In the crypto world, the term 'deflation' often equates to a price surge. But the key point is: the proposal has not yet been approved; it is still in the 'proposal' stage. The market is currently speculating on expectations, and if the vote fails or is delayed, it will turn into 'the good news has been fully priced in as bad news.' So, don't just get excited looking at the numbers; keep an eye on the progress of the proposal.
Technical aspect: It looks very fierce, but there is a fatal detail.
Indicators are generally bullish: Moving average line 8 buy to 4 sell, technical indicators 9 buy to 0 sell, the summary is simply 'strong buy'. This momentum seems like it's about to take off.
Key position: 27.6 is a key level; if it stabilizes, it can push against the resistance at 29.5. The lower support is at 26.
However, pay attention to the hidden dangers of MACD: although the white line has crossed above the 0 axis, the energy bars are shrinking! This indicates that the upward momentum may be weakening, somewhat like the 'last gasp of a strong bow'.
The most contradictory is the funds: all technical indicators are green, but the contract funds have seen a net outflow across almost all lines from 30 minutes to 10 days! 5.64 million outflow in 1 hour, over 15 million outflow in 1 day. What does this indicate? It indicates that a lot of smart money is secretly unloading, taking advantage of good news and good technicals, handing over the chips to retail investors who buy based on charts.
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Zhao Gongming's viewpoint:
In the face of the major benefits of deflation, I am short-term cautiously bullish. But I must be clear: the market is likely to follow the 'expectation speculation' model, where there are repeated upward fluctuations before the proposal is passed, and a short-term high may appear when it is actually passed. A direct surge requires sustained volume. I am more inclined to think it will first attempt to hit 29.5, but the process will be very volatile. If it cannot consistently break above 27.6, be careful of the good news failing and falling back to the 26 support.
Retail operation suggestion:
Holding suggestion: You can set 26 as the profit-taking and stop-loss baseline; if it doesn't break, hold on. If it obviously stagnates near 29.5, consider taking some profits in batches.
Watching suggestion: Absolutely do not heavily chase high! If it can stabilize in the 27-27.6 range, you can try a small position. If it directly surges, it’s better to miss out than to make a mistake.
Remember the core: in the case of continuous outflow of funds from the main contract, treat 'good news' as cover for your gradual retreat, not a signal to go all in. Speculate on expectations, sell on facts.
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