Good evening, friends, I am Qi He.
Watching ETH repeatedly jump around this critical position of 2930, are you also sweating in front of the screen? Those who go long feel the trend is still there, unwilling to give up; those who go short see the MACD death cross and are restless. How should we play this hand tonight? Don't worry, we will gradually unveil the mystery.
News: A $1.022 billion 'nuclear bomb'
Compared to the tangled technical indicators, there is a set of data tonight that is the key to deciding the life and death of the bulls and bears.
Just now, the market sent a breaking news: If Ethereum falls below $2800, the accumulated long positions in major exchanges will face a liquidation intensity of up to $1.022 billion!
Conversely, if it can strongly break through $3000, then 843 million in short positions would also be liquidated.
What does this mean? Let me translate it into plain language: around the positions of 2800 and 3000, countless retail stop-loss orders have piled up. It's like two huge 'ammunition depots'.
No matter which price it touches, it will trigger a violent 'liquidity tsunami' where a large number of contracts are forcibly liquidated by the system. This force will push the price to further places like a giant wave. Breaking below 2800 will trigger a chain liquidation and a cascading drop; breaking above 3000 will trigger short liquidations and a violent rise.
Technical aspect: trend upwards, indicators downwards.
From the hourly chart, ETH's rise from 2700 indeed still maintains an upward trend in structure. That upward 'invisible channel' is still there, which is also the main reason why many friends are reluctant to go short; trend is king.
But here comes the strange part: the yellow and white lines of the MACD are honestly lying below the 0 axis, forming a death cross. It's like a car where the dashboard shows it's still moving forward, but the engine fault light is on; which one do you believe?
In the cryptocurrency circle, indicators often deceive, but price and volume won't. All contradictions are often the starting point of the next big market.
What should players do?
If your position is heavy, especially for longs: the key level of 2930 cannot effectively break down anymore. If the hourly line closes below 2930, you need to be extremely cautious and consider reducing your position.
If you want to open a new position: going against the trend to go long is like trying to take a risk in a fire, not recommended for ordinary players. A more prudent approach is to look for shorting opportunities as the price rebounds near the 3000-3050 resistance area.
Qihe's perspective:
So, don't just focus on that contradictory MACD. Tonight's core script revolves around the '2800-3000' life-and-death zone.
My personal view is very clear: in a situation where the intensity of long liquidations far exceeds that of shorts, the temptation and motivation for the market to 'kick down' is much greater than for it to 'pull up'. The main players are very clear about where the 'meat' is buried more.
Therefore, I think the probability of a pullback happening tonight is higher.
I am Qihe from the cryptocurrency circle, hit follow, and I'll teach you how to seize this wave of market to make a full catch! If you don't know how to time it, Qihe will analyze in real-time in the village, providing the best entry points. Follow Qihe, + chat room to help you avoid pitfalls, and dissect subsequent capital movements at the first moment to seize every profitable window!
