Eight years ago, I was tightening screws on an assembly line, earning a monthly salary of 3000, hesitating for half a day over a 12 yuan boxed meal with an egg while crammed in a dormitory with six people. Now, I own two apartments in Shanghai, with assets exceeding 20 million - this is not a fairy tale, but a comeback earned through four lessons from liquidation. Today, as an analyst with many years of experience in the crypto space, I want to share four hardcore tips to help beginners avoid detours. (Note: The following is purely personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice)
1. "Rapid rises and slow declines are market manipulation; sudden spikes followed by crashes are signals to escape"
I once panicked and sold during a 20% drop of SOL after a rapid rise, missing out on a subsequent 50% increase; another time, after a 30% surge of SOL followed by a crash, I decisively liquidated and avoided a 40% decline. The key difference lies in the intent of the funds:
Rapid rise and slow fall: This is usually the main force washing the盘, scaring off retail investors through slight pullbacks; moderate volume reduction is mostly a consolidation phase.
Rapid rise and flash crash: Accompanied by huge selling pressure (e.g., daily trading volume surging by 300%), it is often a collective exit of funds, and decisive loss-cutting is necessary.
My strategy: Now encountering a slow decline, I will observe the 10-day moving average support; once it breaks with volume, immediately reduce positions.
2. "High-level no-volume consolidation is the deathly silence before a crash"
I once greedily held onto ETH that was consolidating at a high level, and as a result, the trading volume continued to shrink for a week before plummeting by 50%, resulting in a loss of 30,000. Trading volume is the 'emotional code' of the market:
Volume-price divergence: Price is consolidating but trading volume is sharply decreasing, indicating a decline in investor interest and hidden selling pressure.
Main force trap: Operators often use consolidation to create a 'stable illusion,' and once retail investors follow, they dump the market.
Now my discipline: Any currency high-level consolidation + trading volume shrinking for more than 3 days, immediately reduce positions by 50%; if it breaks below the platform's lower edge, clear all positions.
3. "Buying the bottom is not guessing the bottom; wait for reduced volume to stabilize before shooting"
BNB fell 25% and then rebounded by 10%; I impulsively bought the bottom and ended up being stuck for half a year. The true bottom must meet:
Volume shrinks to the extreme: Trading volume shrinks to 20%-30% of previous highs, market selling pressure is exhausted.
Volume confirmation: Trading volume and price both rise for 3 consecutive days (e.g., daily trading volume increasing by 15%+), and the closing price stabilizes above the 30-day moving average.
Last year, when Bitcoin hit bottom, I waited for a gentle increase in volume after a period of reduced volume consolidation before entering the market, earning three times in six months.Beginners should remember: It is better to miss the first 10% of the increase than to wait for clear signals!
4. "Trading volume is the only indicator that won't lie"
Candlestick patterns can be drawn, news can be faked, but the trading volume generated by real money cannot be disguised for long. My core risk control:
Confirm breakout: When the price breaks through a key resistance level, the trading volume must increase to more than 150% of the daily average, otherwise it may be a false breakout.
Position management: Never go all in! I am used to keeping 40% cash and only adding positions in batches when volume and price resonate.
Truthful words for beginners
Making money in the cryptocurrency circle relies not on the mentality of getting rich quickly, but on the discipline of 'surviving.' I once lost 80% of my capital due to frequent operations over half a year; now I watch the market for no more than 1 hour a day, only focusing on trading volume and key moving averages. Remember:
Invest with spare money to avoid psychological imbalance;
Mainstream coins (BTC/ETH) account for 70% of the position, and altcoins should be played with a maximum of 30%;
Reject contract leverage; newbies die the fastest in this trap.
The fairest place in this world is that money beyond cognition will eventually be lost. Eight years ago, while I was learning candlestick patterns with cold steamed buns, I never imagined today—slowing down allows for a longer journey.
(Follow me for more hardcore analysis! Leave your questions in the comments, and I will randomly answer 3 questions)#巨鲸动向 $ETH
