Rules prevail over luck, and patience prevails over impulse
I remember when I first entered the crypto world, I was also a 'newbie' who saw my assets halved overnight. In 2015, I rushed into the market with my first funds saved from part-time work, thinking that trading cryptocurrencies was just about buying high and selling low. As a result, within three months, I paid a hefty tuition fee.
Ten years have passed. I have grown from a novice who felt anxious at the sight of price fluctuations to a professional managing eight-figure funds. In this article, what I want to share is not the secret to 'getting rich overnight,' but the wisdom of how to survive long-term in this highly volatile market.
1. My painful lesson: From blind to rational
The first lesson: Don't treat speculation as investment
When I first entered the cryptocurrency market, I chased various "hundred times" coin news every day, and my hands trembled while placing orders. The result is predictable: the small money earned couldn't offset a big loss. The most painful time, I heavily invested in a so-called "blockchain + e-commerce" altcoin, and the project team ran away, causing 90% of the funds to evaporate instantly.
This experience made me understand: the cryptocurrency market is not a casino but a battlefield for cognitive realization. If you do not understand the value of a project, then you are gambling, and the long-term winning rate of gambling is almost zero.
The second lesson: Position management is key to survival
During the bear market in 2018, I witnessed a friend directly liquidate due to a 5x leverage long position on Bitcoin, after a single-day drop of 30%, wiping out ten years of accumulation. This made me deeply realize: "Never bet with funds you cannot afford to lose completely."
Now, I strictly follow the principle that a single currency position does not exceed 10% of total funds. Even if I have high hopes for a project, I never make exceptions. This is also why I survived the LUNA collapse in 2022—my position only accounted for 3% of total funds. Although I suffered losses, it did not severely impact me.
2. My core strategy: Seeking excess returns through stability
1. The "532" rule of asset allocation
After years of practice, I have formed my own asset allocation strategy:
50% used for Bitcoin and Ethereum, the two "anchors". They are the cornerstones of the cryptocurrency world, with relatively low volatility, and perform well in every bull market.
30% used for promising public chains and platform coins, such as SOL, BNB, etc. These projects must have actual users and ecosystem support.
20% used for innovative tracks and small-cap tokens, such as Layer 2, AI + blockchain, etc. These are key to obtaining excess returns but also carry the highest risks.
I rebalance my positions every quarter, selling off some assets that have appreciated too much and replenishing undervalued varieties.
2. Trend judgment: Only eat the fish body, not the whole fish
I never try to buy at the lowest point or sell at the highest point. Instead, I judge trends through two simple indicators:
MA60 direction: When the MA60 on the daily chart is upward and the price is above it, I consider it an upward trend and only go long.
Volume confirmation: An increase must be accompanied by steadily increasing volume, while a decrease requires shrinking volume.
Once a trend is established, I hold patiently until the trend changes. "Better to miss out than to make a mistake" is an important insight I have gained from ten years of trading.
3. Stop-loss discipline: Protecting the principal is above all else
I set a strict rule that the maximum loss for a single trade does not exceed 2% of total funds. The specific operation is: for altcoins, set a stop-loss 15% below the entry price; for mainstream coins, it is 10%.
Stop-loss is not admitting defeat but is for survival. Just like wearing a seatbelt while driving, it’s not because you expect an accident, but to ensure you survive in case something goes wrong.
3. Common misconceptions and responses for ordinary investors
1. Overtrading: Action does not equal progress
The most common mistake beginners make is frequent trading. In fact, most of the time in the cryptocurrency market is a volatile market; staying on the sidelines is a strategy in itself. Most of my profits now come from a few clear trend markets each year, while other times mainly involve small positions for testing or just resting.
2. Blindly following "big names"
I was once a follower of various "insider news" until I discovered that 90% of the so-called news was to find someone to take over. Now I only look at the project's white paper, team background, technological progress, and community activity, as these are the key factors determining long-term value.
3. Emotional decision-making
Greed when prices soar and fear when they plummet—this is a human weakness. My response method is: to formulate a detailed trading plan and strictly execute it, including buying conditions, position size, stop-loss points, and take-profit points. Once the plan is set, I will not change it arbitrarily during trading.
4. Sincere advice for newcomers to the cryptocurrency world
If you just entered this market, I have three suggestions:
Invest with spare money: Only invest funds that you can afford to lose completely, so you can maintain rational judgment.
Start with mainstream coins: Before understanding market rules, focus your energy on Bitcoin and Ethereum, which have good liquidity and relatively controllable risks.
Learn to preserve value before talking about appreciation: Before learning how not to lose money, don't always think about doubling your investment. My strategy is small losses + small gains + occasional large gains = long-term compound interest. Over ten years, this model has allowed me to achieve a transition from six figures to nine figures.
The most fascinating thing about the cryptocurrency market is not getting rich overnight, but that it offers fair opportunities to those willing to learn and be patient. No matter where you come from or what background you have, as long as you have a deep understanding of the market and can control your emotions well, you have the potential to achieve substantial returns.
In this market, living longer is more important than earning quickly.
I hope my experience can help you avoid detours. If you find this article helpful, feel free to follow my latest updates—I will continue to share practical experience and market analysis in the cryptocurrency space.
Personal opinion for reference only. The market has risks, and investment requires caution#巨鲸动向 $ETH
