Don't be foolish! The "sugar-coated shell" of non-farm payrolls, 90% of players simply don't understand!
Family, I am Si Sheng. Today everyone is buzzing about "non-farm surprise, crypto carnival"—but I want to pour a bucket of cold water: what you see as a "great benefit" may be the first layer of the trap!
1. A fatal logic that has been ignored:
The market is celebrating "interest rate cut expectations", but what lies behind the unemployment rate soaring to 4.6%? It is the economic engine losing speed! This is not simply "liquidity benefits", but rather "the patient is sent to ICU, only then do we start giving you stimulants". Bitcoin may jump in the short term due to liquidity expectations, but what about the medium to long term? When the knife of recession really falls, how many can hold on?
2. The real battleground is not the "non-farm" itself!
Everyone is focused on the data, but the experts are already watching for "expectation rewrites". Now the speculation is whether the Federal Reserve will back down early. But be careful! Once subsequent CPI or employment data rebounds, all this "interest rate cut carnival" will instantly backfire, and the leverage crush will be more violent than the benefits! This is not investment; this is an expectation gamble of "dancing with wolves".
3. What should players do? — Remember three "anti-humanity" operations:
When others are greedy, you should fear liquidity! Short-term rebounds are opportunities for you to adjust your positions, not a horn for you to go All in.
Keep a close eye on the divergence of "unemployment rate" and "hourly wage": If the unemployment rate rises while wages are still increasing, beware of the ghost of "stagflation", which will be a nightmare for all risk assets.
Shift from "data trading" to "watching allocations": Large funds have already been quietly adjusting their proportions of stocks, bonds, and cryptocurrencies.
Your strategy should not be to "bet on one side", but rather how to avoid being thrown off the deck when the big ship turns.
Finally, Si Sheng has a heart-wrenching statement:
History tells us that the news most people understand is no longer an opportunity. The real turning point is always hidden in the "misunderstandings" of the majority.
In the current market, it's not about who is more optimistic, but who can stay sober and fasten their seatbelt amid the carnival.
Retail investors should "patiently wait for opportunities, act decisively and steadily". Follow Si Sheng to get daily shared real-time strategies + anti-cutting guides! $ETH #美国非农数据超预期
