#比特 The Butterfly Effect of Japan's Interest Rate Hike
On December 15th, Bitcoin fell from 90,000 to 85,600, a single-day drop of -5%, with no defaults and no negative news, while gold remained almost unchanged. The seemingly inexplicable decline actually has its answer in Tokyo.
On the 19th, the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%, the highest rate in nearly 30 years. Don’t underestimate this 25 basis points; it is shaking the underlying logic of global liquidity.
After years of zero interest rates, global funds relied on "Yen arbitrage"—borrowing yen, exchanging for dollars, and purchasing high-yield assets (U.S. stocks, bonds, BTC). With the rate hike approaching, the cost of borrowing yen is rising, and expectations for yen appreciation are strengthening, forcing institutions to close positions and replenish yen, selling off the most liquid assets they hold—Bitcoin being the first on the chopping block.
This scenario is not unprecedented. After Japan's rate hike in July 2024, BTC plummeted 23% in a week. Statistics show that in the past three rate hikes, BTC averaged a pullback of over 20%. This decline is essentially capital trying to flee.
A deeper change is that since the approval of spot ETFs, BTC is no longer considered "independent digital gold" but has been included in Wall Street's risk asset pool. Once institutions tighten their risk budgets, U.S. stocks, bonds, and Bitcoin will all be reduced together. The correlation between BTC and the Nasdaq has soared from 0.2 in the past to 0.8, resembling high Beta tech stocks even more.
Therefore, this round of decline is not because the Japanese are selling their coins; rather, it is global institutions reducing risk. The fate of BTC has now been tied to global liquidity.
On December 19th, if the Bank of Japan adopts a hawkish tone, it could trigger another round of short-term volatility; however, if market expectations are met, selling pressure may be limited. Historical patterns indicate that BTC usually stabilizes and rebounds one to two weeks after such resolutions.
Today's BTC is no longer an isolated island.
A conference in Tokyo is enough to make global coin prices fluctuate.
This is the reality of the era of institutionalization.
