Many people see the data on this chain and their first reaction is:
"Whale shorting = ETH is about to reverse?"
If you really understand it this way,
Then you only saw the surface and didn't understand the true intentions of the main players.
Let me give you a conclusive judgment:
Abraxas's actions are not a signal to go long,
But rather, "this segment of the downward trend has already been completely consumed by them."
First, let's clarify the facts: this is not a small short position, but an entire cycle-level operation.
Let's list the numbers, and you'll see how significant this matter is:
ETH short position establishment time: May
Peak short position scale: approximately 267 million USD
Cumulative closure: about 240 million USD
Month-on-month shrinkage: 90%
Funding rate settlement yield: 13.74 million USD
Paper floating profit: 4.69 million USD (176%)
Closing range: around 2932 USD
Pay attention to two keywords:
👉 Start building positions in May
👉 Now basically all are out of the market
What does this mean?
This is not a short-term directional bet,
This is an entire medium-term downward cycle, fully consumed by this institution.
Two, why choose to continuously close positions near 2930? This is a key signal
If Abraxas thinks ETH will fall sharply again,
It does not need to rush to cut the short position to almost nothing at 2930.
The main force usually has only three real thoughts:
1️⃣ Continue to hold, wait for lower
2️⃣ Reverse to go long
3️⃣ Closing position and switching battlefield
What is happening now is the third.
What does this indicate?
In the eyes of the main force,
The space for this round of "high odds shorting" on ETH has been fully consumed.
It does not mean it can't fall again,
But rather:
If it falls again, the cost-effectiveness is already low.
Three, the most important point: they did not go long on ETH, but bought HYPE
If you only focus on "flat short", you will misjudge.
What is really valuable is the second half:
Abraxas transferred some funds to increase HYPE spot holdings,
Current holdings approximately 47.5 million USD.
At this step, the amount of information is vast.
What does this mean?
❌ Not "ETH is going to reverse"
❌ Not "looking bullish on the market overall"
✅ Rather, it is "the ETH market ends, switch assets to continue betting"
This is the true path of the main force.
Four, what this matter really reveals is ETH's current "awkward positioning"
We translate Abraxas's choice into one sentence:
ETH: not worth shorting again, but also not worth going long immediately.
This is the most authentic market position of ETH now.
Why?
1️⃣ The main logic of the downward movement has been realized
ETF outflows
Macroeconomic uncertainty
Altcoins kill valuations
These negative factors,
Have been fully reflected by this wave of ETH's adjustment.
2️⃣ New long logic has not yet appeared
No new growth narrative
There is no obvious on-chain demand explosion
No structural capital inflow
So the main force will not be in a hurry to go long.
3️⃣ Relative returns are no longer as good as other assets
In the eyes of the main force:
Not as good as putting the money,
Take it to places like HYPE with "new narrative + new liquidity."
Five, what is the direct impact on the structure of ETH's market?
The exit of shorts at the level of Abraxas will bring three things:
1️⃣ Downward pressure has significantly eased
Large-scale shorts no longer press the market
The probability of a spike-like crash is decreasing
👉 This is the same logic as you saw earlier: BTC's chip concentration is not high.
2️⃣ But it will not reverse immediately
Because:
Not the bulls entering the market
Just short covering
👉 This is "not falling further", not "going to rise".
3️⃣ ETH enters a "dull oscillation period"
The most likely state of ETH next is:
Range oscillation + emotional consumption + main force shifting battlefields
This is very painful for short-term traders,
But it is very important for those who judge trends.
Six, why is this said to be "the closing signal of the bear market"?
Look back at history:
Every significant downward market
Before the end, there will definitely be a large short covering.
And not passively getting liquidated
Abraxas's operations are very "textbook":
High position building
Rolling positions midway
Downward realization
Low position flat short
Switch assets to continue playing
This indicates:
This round of ETH's main decline segment has already completed.
Seven, but there is a pit that retail investors are most likely to step into
Many people will immediately draw a conclusion:
"Should I bottom fish ETH now?"
I will give you a direct answer:
Not now.
The reason is simple:
The main force is just "no longer bearish"
But it hasn't started to "actively look bullish" yet
During this middle period,
Is often the most grinding oscillation period.
Eight, how should retail investors view ETH now?
Give you a clear judgment framework:
✅ Look at the oscillation, not the trend
There is space both up and down
But none are large
✅ Look at the rotation, not the main line
Funds will continuously flow from ETH to other narratives
Backflow again
❌ Do not bet on one side
Do not bet on a crash
Also not betting on an immediate reversal
Nine, a one-sentence summary of the true meaning of Abraxas's actions
This is a standard operation of "the bear main force finishing the meal and leaving the market"
Not a bull market signal, but it means "the worst part has passed."
What the market will do next,
Not a rally,
But rather:
Digest emotions, shift attention, and reallocate funds.$ETH
