The four-year cycle is dead! Bitcoin will violently break through in 2026, while you are still waiting for the halving?

Bitwise predicts that the 'four-year cycle' of Bitcoin has been sentenced to death.

It's not an adjustment, it's not a transformation, it's a complete end.

Are you still calculating the halving market, waiting for history to repeat itself? Wake up, the old map can no longer find the new continent.

Why is this time really different?

Several points made by Matt Hougan are cutting to the chase:

The halving effect is getting weaker—each halving leads to a supply reduction, compared to the ever-growing capital pool, it's like pouring one less cup of water into a swimming pool. Do you still expect it to cause a tsunami?

Interest rates are falling + leverage is being cleaned up—if interest rates really drop in 2026, capital will flow in, but this time, there will be much fewer liquidation disasters. Not because the market isn't crazy, but because the leverage that could burst has mostly been washed out.

Institutions have already entered the market and are not stopping—ETFs are not the end; they are the starting point for institutions to build positions. They are not looking at the four-year cycle; they are looking at asset allocation. Bitcoin is transforming from a 'casino chip' to an 'asset balance sheet item.'

Are you still using the retail cycle mentality to fight against the capital flood of institutions?

What is the most terrifying thing?

It’s not that Bitcoin can't reach a new high, but that: it has risen, but it has nothing to do with you.

In the previous cycles, everyone rose and fell together, and the chips were still in the hands of the community.

In the future? ETFs will quietly absorb chips every day, the bottom will be bought through by them, and the top will be broken by them. When you wait for a pullback according to the 'cycle theory', you will find that the pullback is as shallow as if the plate had been licked clean by institutions—then it will continue to rise.

You wait four years, and what you get is missing out.

What should players do? Remember three phrases:

Forget the halving, remember the flow—only look at one data point in the future: ETF net inflow. That’s real money, not narrative illusion.

Don't wait for a deep pullback, you can't afford to wait—institutional cost lines keep pushing higher; a deep pullback is just sending them chips.

Position management > timing—In a market destined to be dominated by institutions, the only thing you can control is the amount of coins you hold. Buy when it drops, hold when it rises, don’t get shaken out.

Are you ready to watch from the sidelines, or are you going to ride the wave? Follow the I Ching, let us lead you into the village, break down more moves of the big players, and seize the next wave of wealth codes! #美股2026预测