Beijing time December 16, according to the latest data from the CME FedWatch Tool, the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy at the beginning of next year have become conservative ahead of tonight's key employment data release.
Specifically, the market expects a 24.4% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its January meeting, while the probability of maintaining the current interest rate level is as high as 75.6%. This indicates that the market generally believes that the likelihood of a policy shift in January is low.#美联储降息
Looking ahead to March next year, the uncertainty surrounding the interest rate path has increased. The market predicts a 49% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged by March, a 42.4% probability of a cumulative cut of 25 basis points, and an 8.6% probability of a cumulative cut of 50 basis points. The dates for the next two Federal Reserve policy meetings are January 30-31, 2024, and March 18-19.
The key data that the market is holding its breath for will be released tonight at 21:30 (Beijing time). The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the November employment report, which includes seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate. The current market median expectation is for an increase of 40,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.4%.#巨鲸动向
Analysis indicates that tonight's non-farm employment data will be a key catalyst affecting the fluctuations of the above probability forecasts. If the data is significantly weaker than expected, it could greatly increase market bets on the Federal Reserve cutting rates sooner; conversely, if the labor market remains resilient, it will provide more room for the Federal Reserve to maintain a 'higher for longer' interest rate policy.$BNB
