12.16 UKOIL Intraday
Changes in supply and demand expectations in the international energy market: On one hand, the effectiveness of OPEC+ production cuts is being questioned by the market, with rumors of increased production from some member countries raising supply concerns; on the other hand, the pace of global economic recovery is slowing, and expectations for industrial oil demand are weakening. Coupled with unexpected increases in U.S. crude oil inventories, expectations of oversupply in the crude oil market in the short term are rising. At the same time, the U.S. dollar index is supported by expectations of Federal Reserve policy, strengthening amidst fluctuations, putting pressure on oil prices denominated in dollars. Under this multiple negative resonance, short-term bearish sentiment for UKOIL is dominant, making it a suitable time to consider short positions.
60.8 is the entry point, which corresponds to the lower rebound pressure of the descending trend line, and is also the resistance zone of weak rebounds after a rapid decline. The current point has shown an upper shadow pressure pattern after rebounding to this position, marking a reasonable critical point for the first short position layout under the “descending trend structure.” This location aligns with the rhythm of short-term rebounds and is at a critical point for the bull-bear competition constrained by trend pressure and a dense trading area, with clear technical suppression logic and a high margin for error for entry.
The add-on position can be set at 61, which corresponds to the upper-lower transition pressure point of the previous consolidation platform and is recognized by the market as a key integer level. After rebounding to this area from previous points, significant selling pressure signals have appeared.
The stop-loss can be observed at 61.3, which is the critical breakout point of the recent descending trend line and the core rebound high during the previous decline. If the point effectively breaks above this level, there is a high probability of entering a rebound trend in the short term.
Target: 59.8-59.3
(60.8 entry, 61 add, 61.3 stop, looking at 59.8-59.3)
Personal opinion, not constituting investment advice
