Good morning friends, I will clarify the key real-time situation in a simple and straightforward way, without professional jargon, all practical information:

1. BTC real-time market: On December 16, BTC has fallen below $86,000, dropping to a low of $85,578, nearly 30% down from the high of $126,000 in October. Currently, short-term investors are hastily selling off to cut losses, but large institutions are not panicking, holding nearly 30% of the circulating BTC, and some institutions are even taking the opportunity to buy, which is a key support that prevents the price from collapsing further.

2. Special situation of non-farm data: The November non-farm data for the U.S. that was supposed to be released on December 5 has been delayed to tonight at 21:30 due to the government shutdown. However, two prior private data reports have already leaked the bottom line, one stating that 9,000 non-farm jobs were lost in November, and another stating that the private sector directly lost 32,000 jobs, both signals of a cooling labor market, which has already subtly influenced market expectations.

3. Current situation at the Federal Reserve: On December 11, a rate cut was made, and now the interest rate is at 3.5%-3.75%, but the Federal Reserve indicated that it may pause rate cuts after this. Furthermore, it is highly likely that there won't be arbitrary cuts in the near future, and a rate cut in January is unlikely, with the next potential cut possibly waiting until March next year. The amount of money in the market has not increased, which is also one of the reasons BTC has been under pressure.

4. Actual impact of tonight's data on BTC: If the data shows employment is still poor, people may think the Federal Reserve might have to cut rates again, and BTC might rebound, but it would need to rise above $90,000 to truly show a rebound momentum; if the data unexpectedly improves, it indicates that the U.S. economy is doing well, the probability of rate cuts decreases, and BTC will likely continue to decline, making it difficult to hold the $85,000 level.

5. The current real state of the market: Now no one dares to act lightly, everyone is watching. In the past 24 hours, the total liquidation of cryptocurrencies across the network exceeded $500 million, with most losses coming from bullish investors. BTC is currently fluctuating between $85,000 and $94,000, and the trading volume is not good, with no significant new funds entering the market. In the short term, it is likely to continue this way, without a clear upward or downward trend.

Lastly, to be frank, cryptocurrencies themselves are extremely volatile, and the above is just an objective analysis based on existing data and should not be taken as investment advice. Creating this is not easy. Remember to give Old Cat a follow, thank you!!!