This week, at 3 PM (Vietnam Time) on Friday, June 26, 2026, the entire crypto market is focusing on one of the biggest derivative events of the quarter as approximately 162,000 BTC options with a notional value close to $10 billion are set to expire on Deribit.
On top of that, the Ethereum market is also seeing a massive options expiry worth around $1.7 billion happening at the same time.
This is an event likely to create substantial volatility for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the entire altcoin market in the short term. BTCVN4 is particularly attentive to this phase.
What is Max Pain?
According to market data, Bitcoin's Max Pain level is currently around 72,000 USD, while Ethereum's Max Pain is at 2,000 USD.
Max Pain is the price point at which the majority of option buyers suffer the most, while it allows institutions or market makers to pay out the least.
In other words, this is the price range that the derivatives market tends to get 'pulled' towards as expiration day approaches.
Although Max Pain isn't a foolproof predictive tool, when the contract size reaches billions of USD, it often significantly impacts short-term price volatility.
What could happen with Bitcoin?
With an expiration size close to 10 billion USD, Bitcoin is likely to experience significant volatility in the coming days.
If the price is below the Max Pain zone, we might see upward pressure.
Conversely, if the price is trading above the Max Pain zone, we might see corrective pressure as institutions balance their positions.
However, what's noteworthy is that most options contracts are currently out of the money, indicating that many investors have bet on a strong rally, but the market hasn't really met that expectation.
This is why liquidity can become unstable close to expiration day.
Ethereum is also at a crucial juncture.
Ethereum has an expiration option value of about 1.7 billion USD with Max Pain around 2,000 USD.
This is not only a technical milestone but also a crucial psychological level for ETH.
If Ethereum holds around this level until expiration, most options contracts will lose their value, helping the derivatives market return to a more balanced state.
How does this affect Altcoins?
Typically, in the lead-up to expiration:
Bitcoin is trending sideways.
Ethereum is fluctuating within a narrow range.
Speculative capital flow into altcoins is declining.
The reason is that institutions and market makers are concentrating resources to hedge against risks in the derivatives market.
However, the most interesting aspect lies in the phase after expiration concludes.
When this massive contract volume is settled:
Liquidity is being released.
Hedge pressure is significantly decreasing.
The real trend of the market is starting to take shape.
In many previous cycles, sharp spikes or drops typically occur after major expirations rather than before.
What do you need to watch?
Instead of fixating on whether Bitcoin will hit Max Pain, you should observe:
✅ Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF inflows.
✅ BTC Dominance volatility.
✅ Ethereum's strength post-expiration.
✅ Is the money flow returning to Altcoins?
If Bitcoin maintains a stable trend after expiration and BTC Dominance starts to weaken, opportunities for DeFi groups, RWA, and blockchain infrastructure could open up significantly in the second half of the year.
Conclusion
The upcoming options expiration of nearly 12 billion USD for Bitcoin and Ethereum is one of the most significant events of the quarter.
In the short term, the market may continue to experience unpredictable volatility as institutions balance their positions before expiration day.
However, the important thing isn't the volatility over the next few days, but how the money flow reacts after this event concludes.
That's when we can determine whether the market is gearing up for a new growth cycle or just going through a consolidation phase before the next big trend.
BTCVN4 wishes you good luck.
