I woke up from a carnival of wild price surges and crashes.
Eight years ago, when I first entered the industry, the crypto world was like a wild casino—some people doubled their money in three days with altcoins, calling themselves 'kings', only to have their accounts wiped out when regulations hit; others were addicted to 100x leverage, becoming wealthy overnight only to be in debt the next moment. Ironically, those seemingly opportunistic 'quick rises and slow falls' are often traps set by the big players. For example, a certain MEME coin in 2021 surged 300% in 10 minutes, only to fall back to its original point three days later, leaving those who chased the rise with no chance to cut their losses.
1. Epiphany: There are no gods in the crypto world, only probability games.
My turning point was witnessing a veteran trader summarize the truth after blowing up 576 times: 'The winning rate is greater than the profit rate.' He gave up the thrill of 'one-shot' trading and focused instead on three things:
Cycles determine direction: only focus on BTC/ETH weekly charts, accumulate coins in a bear market, and sell in batches during a bull market.
Key level defense: use previous lows, previous highs, and Fibonacci retracement levels as a 'safety cushion,' and decisively stop loss if broken.
Ironclad rule against greed: set stop-loss lines in advance for every trade, withdraw profits immediately at 10%, and never linger in the battle.
This strategy seems conservative, yet it helped me avoid disaster during the Bitcoin fake breakout in 2023. At that time, the market was buzzing with calls for a 'bull market,' but I waited until the weekly trading volume continued to expand before entering. Later, SOL soared from $8 to $260, and I cashed out part of my holdings but insisted on keeping 30% in cash—because what the crypto world lacks is not opportunity, but the capital to survive until the next cycle.
2. Poison traps: emotional markets and narrative hype
The biggest poison in the crypto world is confusing 'narrative' with 'value.' Many projects have terrible fundamentals but can skyrocket through community hype. For instance, Dogecoin's market cap once approached 100 billion, completely driven by emotions. But after the revelry, it left a mess:
Millennials account for a high proportion of investors, making them prone to FOMO (fear of missing out) and blindly chasing rises;
KOLs and VCs have already set up early layouts, and retail investors become the ones picking up the tab when they enter;
Regulatory policies can suddenly strike (such as domestic cleanups of ICOs), causing high-leverage players to collapse instantly.
I have seen too many people lose money due to the 'echo chamber effect'—only looking at opinions that support their views while ignoring risks. Now, whenever I evaluate a project, I must first seek opposing opinions: if it can only survive through hype, I won't touch it no matter how lively it is.
3. My survival checklist: 12 indicators refine the 'discipline brain'
Now my account has surpassed eight figures, but what I value most is not the number, but the 'checklist thinking' that has been refined. Before each trade, I check 12 indicators, including:
Sustainability of the narrative (is it a short-term hot spot or a long-term trend?);
The degree of divergence between technical and fundamental analysis;
Community activity and token concentration...
During my weekly reviews, I focus on recording operations that violate discipline: such as chasing rises due to FOMO or prematurely taking profits out of panic. The cost of these mistakes is more alarming than losses.
The last piece of heartfelt advice
The crypto world is a magnifying glass for greed, but also a touchstone for cognition. Here, the dreams of gamblers are buried, but it rewards those who respect risk. If you are ready to enter, remember:
Don't believe in 'getting rich overnight'; holding blue-chip coins (like BTC/ETH) long-term is more stable than chasing altcoins;
Position management is crucial: the risk of a single trade should not exceed 2% of total capital;
Leverage is poison; ordinary people should stay away from contracts.
Bull markets belong to the survivors who lived through it, not to the fleeting gamblers. Rather than envying others' gains, it is better to protect your own bottom line—because in this market, surviving means you've already beaten 90% of the people.
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