【To be honest, the way ETH is moving right now is making me a bit restless】
The main players could have left a long time ago. I watched ETH for a while during the day, and the structure is more stable than I expected. The position at 3122 has been tested several times without breaking down, and the volume hasn't significantly increased, making me feel that the bears are losing their strength. The RSI is wavering at 51.2, neither strong nor weak, just stuck in the middle ground, as if waiting for some signal. As an old investor, I've seen this many times; it's the easiest time to be deceived—just when you think there will be a pullback, a strong bullish candle takes off; just when you think there will be a breakthrough, it immediately gives you a deep wash.
Currently, it does seem that the bulls are in control, the daily trend hasn't broken down, the middle band of the Bollinger Bands is holding up, and the MACD is still sticking above water, indicating some accumulation. But to be honest, I really don't dare to chase heavily right now. The shadow of getting trapped when chasing high at 3400 last month is still fresh, and the pain of cutting losses is too much.
I think there are two possibilities ahead. One is a gentle upward move, slowly grinding above 3200 to fill that previous gap, and then oscillating in the 3250-3300 range. This scenario is the most comfortable and is suitable for those who can hold on to accumulate positions gradually. The other possibility is a sudden drop, breaking below 3100, burying all the short-term traders who followed the trend recently, and then having a “deep V” rebound. I've seen this script too many times; the big players love to play this way and are good at punishing those who are not compliant.
Personally, I lean slightly bullish, as the Ethereum ecosystem hasn't been bad recently, Layer 2 is active, and staking volume is increasing, with the fundamentals not collapsing. Moreover, Bitcoin is stabilizing above 60,000, providing breathing room for altcoins. However, I won't go all in right now; at most, I'll lightly test a short-term long, set a stop loss, and take some emotional profit before running. If I really want to go big, I still need to see if it can stabilize above 3250.
Ultimately, until the trend is established, no one knows whether tomorrow will be a surge or a crash. For us small retail investors, what we can do is not be greedy, not hold on, and not fantasize. When it's time to observe, we should just sit with idle money and watch the show; opportunities are always reserved for those who last until the end. Brothers, let's encourage each other.
I originally didn't plan to manage this.
