$ETH Bank of Japan rate hike countdown: The calm before the storm in the crypto market

Core judgment: $ETH , $SOL, $BNB

The market has partially priced in, but leveraged positions remain in a high-risk zone; it is not recommended to blindly bottom-fish before the December 19 meeting.

According to authoritative reports from the Securities Times, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda has clearly signaled: the December 19 meeting will assess the pros and cons of a rate hike. Market pricing shows that the probability of a rate hike has soared to over 80%, but the key divergence lies in:

· Base scenario: a 25 basis point hike to 0.75% (the highest level since 1995)

· Risk scenario: if inflation data exceeds expectations, a more aggressive hike of 50 basis points may occur

· Surprise scenario: postponing the rate hike triggers a short-covering rebound

Yen arbitrage trade: The collapsing dominoes

Japan's ultra-loose policy for 30 years has spawned the world's largest arbitrage trade—investors borrow yen at zero cost to invest in high-yield assets such as U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies. Data from CoinWorld shows:

· July 2024 rate hike case: Bitcoin plummeted 23% on the day, with total liquidations exceeding $20 billion

· Current leverage scale: According to Coindesk tracking, nearly $1 billion in leveraged cryptocurrency positions still face liquidation risks

Currency Leverage Sensitivity Key Support Level Risk Level

BTC High (Institutional holdings concentrated) $85,000 High risk

ETH Extremely high (DeFi leverage disaster zone) $2,600 Extremely high risk

SOL Medium (Asian capital preference) $180 Medium-high risk

History does not simply repeat itself, but it does rhyme

Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal warns: "Yen arbitrage trading is the largest macro leverage strategy in the world, and liquidations will simultaneously impact stocks, bonds, and cryptocurrencies." However, there are key differences in 2025:

· Pricing degree: The current market has reflected rate hike expectations 3 months in advance, unlike the surprise rate hike in July 2024

· Leverage structure: Exchange data shows that open contracts have decreased by 40% compared to the peak in 2024

· Policy buffer: The Fed's expectation of a rate cut in 2026 forms a hedge, limiting the cliff of dollar liquidity

Practical strategy: Operation checklist before December 19

· Leverage users: Reduce contract leverage to below 3 times, reserving 150% margin buffer

· Spot holders: Set tiered stop-losses (BTC 85,000/80,000 two levels)

· Opportunists: Prepare USDT ammunition; if Bitcoin falls below $82,000 after the rate hike, consider buying in batches.