12.15 UKOIL Intraday Analysis
Global crude oil market supply and demand expectations continue to suppress prices, and the internal disagreements within OPEC+ regarding the implementation of production cuts have not yet been resolved. Some member countries are not meeting the expected production cut execution rates, leading to heightened concerns about oversupply in the oil market; the manufacturing PMI data for European and American economies remains below the boom-bust line, and weak consumer demand is slowing the recovery pace of crude oil demand, further weakening the upward momentum of oil prices. At the same time, the US dollar index has seen a temporary rebound supported by expectations of the Federal Reserve pausing interest rate cuts, putting passive pressure on the price of Brent crude oil denominated in dollars; although domestic policies to boost consumption have been introduced, the short-term impact on the crude oil industry and consumer demand has yet to manifest. Under multiple negative factors resonating, it is advisable to position for a short.
Initial Entry: 61.8, this is the immediate resistance zone of the descending trend line. When the previous level rebounded to this position, there was significant selling pressure each time, with multiple occurrences of the bearish K pattern after a spike, making it a reasonable critical point for the first short position layout under the "descending trend structure."
Additional Position: 62.0, corresponding to the upper critical point of the descending trend line, and also a dense resistance zone formed during the previous rebound process. The previous levels rebounded to this area twice but were quickly pushed back, representing a "second rebound short opportunity in a weak decline"; adding positions can amplify the short positions under trend pressure.
Defense Level: 62.2, this is the key upper break point of the recent descending trend line; if the level effectively holds at this position, it means that the current technical structure of the "descending trend" has been disrupted, and the core logic of the short position layout will be completely invalidated; setting the defense level here allows for a clear delineation of the stop-loss boundary.
Target Level: 61.2-61.0
(61.8 entry, 62.0 add, 62.2 defense, look for 61.2-61.0)
Personal opinion, not an investment operation
