Long-term Bitcoin $BTC holders are at peak | KaiZXBT on Binance Square

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Long-term Bitcoin $BTC holders are at peak distribution.
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Has the Four-Year Crypto Cycle Ended, and Is a Long-Term Supercycle Emerging? According to the traditional four-year cycle theory, Bitcoin should be entering the early stages of a bear market. However, a growing number of analysts argue that this framework no longer fits today’s market dynamics. Recent price action across the crypto market has deviated from historical patterns. There have been no extreme euphoric blow-off tops at cycle highs, and the long-anticipated “altcoin season” has failed to materialize at the expected scale. Market behavior appears more muted, structured, and less speculative than in previous cycles. A key reason for this shift is the deep involvement of institutional players throughout 2025. The rise of spot Bitcoin ETFs, increased corporate adoption, and strategic capital allocation have fundamentally altered market structure and investor psychology. These forces have reduced volatility extremes and weakened the relevance of purely halving-driven cycles. Even Binance’s former CEO, Changpeng Zhao, has suggested that the four-year cycle may be over. Speaking at the Bitcoin MENA conference, CZ stated that the market could be transitioning into a Bitcoin supercycle. A Bitcoin supercycle refers to a prolonged uptrend that breaks away from traditional boom-and-bust dynamics. Instead of a 12 to 18-month rally followed by drawdowns of up to 85%, a supercycle could sustain upward momentum for two years or longer, driven primarily by institutional demand. CZ believes aggressive institutional participation will be the main catalyst. This scenario aligns with macro tailwinds such as rate cuts and the end of global monetary tightening. However, a supercycle does not lift all assets equally. Capital is likely to concentrate on Bitcoin and high-conviction narratives like ETFs, RWAs, and major infrastructure chains, while highly speculative tokens may be left behind. Despite the risks of sharp corrections, the broader trend points toward deeper crypto integration into the global financial system.

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El Salvador’s Bitcoin treasury has reached 7,500 BTC, worth approximately $677 million, marking another milestone in the country’s national Bitcoin strategy. On-chain data shows that El Salvador accumulated 1,120 BTC over the past 30 days, making it one of the most aggressive accumulation phases since the program began. Notably, a single purchase of 1,090 BTC on November 18 highlights a high-conviction buy during market weakness. Over the past week, the treasury added another 8 BTC, indicating continued small, periodic buys. Surpassing 7,500 BTC reinforces El Salvador’s long-term HODL and DCA-driven approach, positioning the country as a leading sovereign experiment in Bitcoin accumulation amid growing institutional and ETF demand.

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$BTC Analysis : Bitcoin Faces Risk of Dropping Below $70,000 Amid Japan’s Hawkish Monetary Policy Bitcoin could face further downside pressure toward the $70,000 level if the Bank of Japan (BoJ) proceeds with an interest rate hike on December 19, according to several macro analysts. BoJ Rate Hikes Have Historically Triggered Sharp Bitcoin Corrections Data compiled by analyst AndrewBTC shows a clear pattern since 2024: every BoJ rate hike has coincided with a Bitcoin drawdown exceeding 20%. BTC fell roughly 23% in March 2024, 26% in July 2024, and 31% in January 2025 following previous policy tightening moves. AndrewBTC warns that a similar downside scenario could play out again if the BoJ delivers another rate hike at its upcoming meeting. A recent Reuters survey also indicates that most economists expect the BoJ to continue tightening policy in December. Japan’s Role in Global Liquidity Flows Historically, BoJ rate hikes tend to strengthen the Japanese yen, raising borrowing costs and reducing the appeal of risk assets. This often forces investors to unwind yen-funded carry trades, leading to a contraction in global liquidity. When liquidity tightens, Bitcoin typically comes under pressure as traders reduce leverage and de-risk their portfolios amid a broader risk-off environment. Analyst EX notes that, under current macro conditions, Bitcoin could realistically “fall below the $70,000 mark.” Technical Signals Point to Further Downside Risk On the daily chart, Bitcoin is forming a classic bear flag pattern, a technical structure that often signals trend continuation to the downside. This pattern emerged after BTC’s sharp sell-off from the $105,000–$110,000 range in November, followed by a narrow upward consolidation. If BTC breaks below the lower trendline of the bear flag, a renewed decline toward the $70,000–$72,500 zone becomes increasingly likely. Analysts such as James Check and Sellén have echoed similar bearish scenarios over the past month.

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$PENDLE Analysis : Can Pendle Hold the $2 Level After Polychain Exits With a $4 Million Loss? After being rejected near higher price levels more than six months ago, Pendle (PENDLE) has remained locked in a persistent downtrend, recently printing a local low around $2.02. At the time of writing, PENDLE is trading near $2.17, down 4.1% on the day and nearly 18.5% over the past month, highlighting sustained sell-side pressure. This prolonged weakness appears to be triggering capitulation among long-term holders, including institutional players. One notable example is Polychain Capital. On-chain data tracked by EmberCN shows that Polychain fully exited its Pendle position after months of holding. The fund accumulated approximately 4.11 million PENDLE between March and September at an average price of around $3.16, with a total cost near $13 million. Roughly four months later, Polychain sold its entire position around $2.19, realizing an estimated loss of $3.99 million. Such a loss-taking exit often signals a meaningful shift in conviction, especially after an extended period of downside price action. Importantly, selling pressure is not isolated to a single wallet. Coinalyze data shows Pendle posting a negative Buy Sell Delta for nine consecutive days, confirming that spot selling continues to dominate market flows. From a technical perspective, the bearish structure remains intact. The daily RSI has slipped to around 36, pushing PENDLE close to oversold territory, while the Directional Movement Index shows the positive directional indicator falling toward 13, reflecting strong downside momentum. If selling pressure persists, Pendle risks losing the critical $2 support, potentially opening the door to a deeper pullback toward $1.80. To stabilize sentiment, bulls need to reclaim and hold above $2.25. A successful defense could set the stage for a recovery toward the $2.50 zone.

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Is Silver’s Parabolic Rally an Early Warning Signal for Crypto? Silver has stolen the spotlight this week after an explosive parabolic move, printing a new all time high above 64 USD. While the rally itself is remarkable, several analysts argue that the real significance may lie beneath the surface, as silver has historically acted as a leading indicator for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. Market observers note that Bitcoin has often followed silver’s price action with a noticeable lag. This correlation has been visible since 2021, with BTC typically reacting weeks or even months after major upside moves in silver. If this pattern holds, Bitcoin could be setting up for a delayed bullish response to silver’s breakout, though timing remains uncertain. Silver’s surge also suggests a liquidity rotation away from gold. This shift may indicate that capital is gradually moving from traditional safe havens toward assets perceived as relatively undervalued. Eventually, that rotation could extend into crypto once risk appetite improves. Despite expectations that the Federal Reserve’s recent rate cut and the end of quantitative tightening would boost risk assets, Bitcoin dropped more than 4 percent after the announcement, while gold and silver continued higher. A key driver appears to be rising stagflation fears, with inflation still elevated despite looser monetary policy. In this environment, investors have favored defensive assets over Bitcoin. However, history shows that when liquidity exits gold and silver, it often looks for higher beta opportunities. That dynamic keeps Bitcoin firmly on the watchlist as a potential next beneficiary. #BTCVSGOLD

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