Brothers, take a look at this ETH one-hour chart; it's intense, a classic rollercoaster market. On December 13th, that sharp drop went straight from around 3270 dollars down to 3040; that sensation is something else, and I estimate another batch of leveraged brothers has been taken out. Now at this position, it's quite interesting.
First, let's analyze the logic. That big bearish candle is a typical panic sell-off, where the reasons are not important; news always serves the technical aspects. The key is to look at the present, with the price closing at 3113, which is right at an awkward position. Above, the MA30 moving average (around 3147) is like an iron plate, firmly pressing down. Below, the short-term MA7 (3092) and that panic low of 3041 form a weak support area. The trading volume also indicates the problem; there was a spike in volume during the sell-off, while the rebound had average volume, showing that most people are trapped and observing, or just looking to grab a quick rebound; the real bullish army hasn't entered yet.
My opinion is clear, don't get too excited. The market hasn't reached the point where we can shout 'the bull is back, hurry home.' The current rebound feels more like a technical correction after a crash, or a brief truce between bulls and bears at a critical position. The overall trend has actually shifted to a weak oscillating pattern since breaking below the MA30.
The operational plan for the family can be summed up in two sentences: those with positions shouldn't relax, and those without positions shouldn't get anxious.
If you have spot assets, this rebound is an opportunity for you to adjust your positions, not to increase your holdings recklessly. Lock in your stop-loss discipline. A more pragmatic approach is to set your stop-loss slightly below the recent panic low of 3041, around the 3000 round number. If the price can strongly hold above the MA30 moving average (above 3150), then consider whether the trend has changed; otherwise, any rebound is just an opportunity for you to reduce your positions or hedge.
If you're watching from the sidelines with no positions, you need to stay calm. Don't get anxious simply because the price has risen a few points, fearing you might miss out on a million. What the crypto market lacks is not opportunities, but patience. What is a clear entry signal? At least it is a price breakout with volume above the resistance area of 3150-3180, and a confirmed pullback to validate the support. Until then, it's not shameful to just watch; preserving your capital is paramount. If you really want to trade, consider taking a very small position at support and resistance levels for some high-low swing trading, set your stop-loss, make some pocket money, but remember, this is a risky game, not the right path.
To summarize, the current situation is a weak consolidation after a decline, with an unclear direction. Those who survive and make money in the crypto market have never been the 'gods' who predict the market most accurately, but the 'survivors' with the steadiest strategies. Forget about costs, respect the market, and let discipline replace emotions in decision-making. The bigger the storm, the calmer your mind should be. Wait for the market to clearly indicate a direction before we follow along to feast; there’s no need to rush.
@俊哥说趋势
